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but we know that Russia uses energy resources as a political tool. Taking
into account that Russia sells 70-75% of its oil and gas to the European
region, with a trade volume of 330 billion dollars with the US ($ 38 billion
in trade with the United States), then Europe's energy imports from outside
Russia is questionable, neither Russia can abandon this policy, nor will
Europe find an alternative source for Russia in the next few years, and that
the European inter-dependent process of Europe will last for at least five
years.
Energy security in Europe should be understood not only as energy
security but also as energy diversification. Since 2007, the term energy
security, which is part of Europe's political life, has been taken as a key
aspect of all energy concepts. After analyzing relations between Europe
and Russia, we understand how important energy security and energy
diversification are for Europe. Diversification for Europe, ie diversification
of diversification energy sources, power lines, transit zones, energy types,
energy use. From energy sources, energy lines, Russia is expected to be the
most energy-intensive Ukraine, as an energy source for oil and gas, as
Russia and its energy transport routes, transportation through energy
pipelines or tankers, and transit zones. From 2030, the problem of energy
sources depletion in Europe will further enhance the role of the
diversification factor.
32% of EU energy supplies to Russia leads to the same position for
European countries to look for new energy sources. The problem of 80-
100% dependence on Southeast European countries, especially from
Russia, further strengthens the diversification tendencies. Are there any
sources of energy that can be an alternative to Russia? Of course, it exists.
This problem can be solved because Europe's geographical position is
surrounded by energy-rich regions, but conflicts in these regions over the
past 20 years have raised the issue of energy security. In addition, the
existing infrastructure, the conditions created for energy transit to Europe,
the construction of pipelines and the required financial resources are key
issues that prevent it. Currently, it is possible to overcome Russia's energy
dependence by increasing the share of oil and gas transported through
Europe via pipelines from the North African region, the Middle East and
partly from the Caspian region through the Mediterranean Sea through
tankers. However, since 2011, the Arab Spring is threatening all North
Africa, the Middle East, and oil from the Caspian region is mainly
transported to Europe via Russia. The main alternative to Russia is Iran
and Iraq. The total oil reserves of these countries are over 300 billion
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barrels, and in terms of gas reserves, according to BP's 2017 data, Iran's
discovered gas reserves are estimated at 33.5 trillion m3. In Russia this
figure is 32 trillion m3. However, since 1995, the US decision to cut off all
trade relations with Iran, oil in 2012, sanctions against natural gas in 2013,
the severe sanctions against the EU in 2010-2012 it has hindered access to
the world market, and in 2017, Iran produced 202.5 billion cubic meters of
gas annually, exporting only 8.4 billion cubic meters. (At present, Iran and
Iraq have about 9 million barrels of oil per day, in Russia this figure is
equal to 11.2 million barrels.) On July 14, the agreement between Iran and
the P5 + 1 on nuclear program will be reached by 2016 the sanctions
imposed by the United States and the European Union have been gradually
abolished since January, but at least six or seven years are needed to
develop Iran's natural gas fields in Europe under the current conditions and
to be an alternative to Russia in Europe and generate enough gas to the
world markets. Another factor is the placement of most of Iran's gas fields
in the south (the largest gas field is South Pars, 14 trillion m3). Therefore,
it is more realistic to sell Iranian gas to nearby markets. From a pricing
aspect, gas sales to East countries (Japan, South Korea, China) can be more
helpful to Iran than to Europe, not just to build a new 1800km pipeline
from south to north of Iran, to sell to Europe at cheaper prices. Under the
current situation, it is possible to transfer additional 10 billion cubic meters
of gas through TANAP and TAP by increasing the capacity of the Tabriz-
Ankara pipeline by 10 times the annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters
of gas, but this would be an alternative to Russia in Europe is not.
Apparently, alternative sources of Russia are not likely to replace
Russia in Europe within the framework of current political relations. The
political conflicts in North Africa, the Middle East, the current economic
conditions in Iran and the above-mentioned scenarios, the legal status of
the Caspian region and the declining energy reserves in Europe can
increase the share of alternative energy in the overall energy supply to
reduce Russian pressure in Europe and prefer gas imports in LNG .
Although the issue of increasing the share of alternative energy by 20% by
2020 is considered to be a priority, according to the EU 2020 Energy
Strategy, the share of alternative energy is now 12%, which is questionable
by 20% by 2020 , but according to the International Energy Agency report,
$ 7 trillion will be invested in alternative energy between 2015-2040.
Nevertheless, taking into consideration the expectation that the share of gas
in Europe will increase to 34% by 2030, the LNG (Liqued Natural Gas-
Liquidated Natural Gas) may be the largest alternative to Russia in the
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