of Kura and potential water resources of the it(Natural run off amounts) the climate change impact to the
water resources of Kura has been estimated.
As it is seen from the table below(Table 1) by all models from 10 to 20% decrease of water resources of
the river is expected in the future if there is now adequate measures of adaptations.
Table 1. Change of water discharges of Kura river under climate change models.
Water discharges , m
3
/sec
Run –off
ranges
Winter
Spring Summed
Autumn Annual
XII-II
III-V
VI-VIII
IX-XI
XII-XI
Initial scenario (1961-1990 гг)
Natural
403
1528
897
524
840
Percent of seasonal values of natural run-off
from their annual sum
12.1
45.8
26.8
15.6
100
Available on territory of Azerbaijan water
resources of Kura
334
1233
684
400
663
Percent of seasonal values of available run-
off from their annual sum
12.6
46.5
25.8
15.1
100
∆t=2
0
С, ∆R=0 % ( scenario supposed by the Azerbaijan Academy of Science)
Natural
398
1391
766
460
755
Percent of seasonal values of observed run-
off from their annual sum
13.2
46.0
25.3
15.1
100
Observed
306
1075
592
354
583
Percent of seasonal values of observed run-
off from their annual sum
13.1
46.1
25.3
15.1
100
GISS
Natural
357
1273
756
412
698
Percent of seasonal values of natural run-off
from their annual sum
12.8
45.0
27.1
14.8
100
Available on territory of Azerbaijan water
resources of Kura
255
966
574
312
527
Percent of seasonal values of available run-
off
from their annual sum
12.8
45.3
27
14.7
100
GFDL-3
Natural
341
1319
682
390
682
Percent of seasonal values of natural run-off
from their annual sum
12..5
48.5
25.0
14.3
100
Available on territory of Azerbaijan water
resources of Kura
272
1081
437
291
520
Percent of seasonal values of available run-
off from their annual sum
13.1
52
21
14
100
As it is seen from the table below by all models from 10 to 20% decrease of water resources of the river is
expected in the future if there is now adequate measures of adaptations.
Results of undertaken work show that annual( and seasonal )amounts of natural flow to be left in the river
as an ecological flow( the minimal monthly run-off necessary for existence of river ecosystem) of Kura river
also get reducing by given climate change models with the air temperature increase from 354 cub.m/sec
(currently) to 305 cub.m/sec(GISS) and 284 cub.m/sec(GFDL-3).
Identification of adaptation feasibility of water resources to remove negative consequences of climate
change is the final stage of quantitative assessment of vulnerability. Basic task of this stage is to identify
91
feasible adaptation measures which should be realized with purpose to prevent climate change consequences
and to contribute stable development of the country.
It is shown that without measures of adaptation occurs hard situation with water provision under all
climate change scenarios and more difficult situation is caused by GFDL-T scenario, that is water resources
may be reduced about by 40 % . In this case the most vulnerable economic branches become energy,
agriculture sectors and provision of population with fresh water.
For different branches of economy the climate change impact assessment carried out and ways of its
negative consequences mitigation determined. Several adaptation measures are given .
As one of way to execute necessary adaptation measures to facilitate water resources management in
condition of water deficiency has been identified some measures of adaptation.
The main directions of these adaptation measures are as followings:
1.
Development of IWRM plans.
2.
Decrease of water deficits resulted with low efficiency of existing water distribution network by their
reconstruction.
3.
Use of underground waters and water recycling.
Based on assessment of authors even implementation of part of these measures may lead to solve existing
water deficit problem. Below is given water economy balance of Kura on the territory of Azerbaijan Republic
for different climate change models (Table 3) and also way of reduction of water deficit by implementation of
50% of needed adaptation measures(Table 4).
Table 2. Change of water economy balance of Kura river on territory of Azerbaijan republic
for different climate
change models and measures of adaptation
Amounts of water
Existing
mln. m
3
Expected, mln. m
3
dT=2
0
C,
dR=0
GISS
GFDL-3
Water economy balance
Water Use(including losses)
12000
12000
12000
12000
Environmental flow needs in Kura
Downstream
11500
11500
11500
11500
Water use and environmental flow
Together
23500
23500
23500
23500
Existing surface waters(including water abstract
plans by upstream countries)
21000
20000
19000
18000
Water deficit
2500
3500
4500
5500
Adaptation measures
Use of 50% of available capacity of
ground water available for yearly
ploitation
2000
2000
2000
2000
Increase of water use efficiency(about 30%)
in result of reconstruction of
water supply
network
1500
1500
1500
1500
Treatment and reuse of about 50% of
polluted waters
2000
2000
2000
2000
Reduction of water deficit in result of
measures
+3500
+2000
+1500
0
Results
92