Testing Pareto’s Theory
177
appear to become more innovative (p<.02) and more positively disposed towards
risk (p<.05). Conservative MPs display exactly the opposite tendencies. They seem
to become less innovative (p<.01) and less positively disposed towards risk (to a
statistically insignificant degree). These widening gaps might
plausibly be interpreted
as corresponding to axes along which MPs slowly accommodate themselves to the
very different orientations towards risk and innovation which mark out the social
personalities of their respective Parliamentary parties.
In conclusion, we can say that convergence between Labour and Conservative
MPs on conservatism-liberalism, together with divergence on caution-risk and
convention-innovation, may plausibly stand for real processes of political socialisation
or acculturation to parliamentary life for the following reasons. Convergence
between the parties on conservatism-liberalism is likely to
count as such because it is
more closely related to duration of parliamentary experience than to age. Divergence
between the parties on caution-risk with increasing duration of parliamentary
experience is also very plausibly a reflection of political socialisation as this would
explain why Labour MPs should buck the trend for
both Labour and Conservative
mean scores to decline with age. This is also true for divergence between the parties
on convention-innovation because we can see that this trend is very strongly related
to duration of parliamentary experience whilst being completely unrelated to age. Of
course, strictly speaking, the above evidence merely shows that more experienced
Labour MPs are more ‘conservative’ and more positively
oriented towards risk
and innovation than their less experienced colleagues, and that more experienced
Conservative MPs are more ‘liberal’ and more negatively oriented towards risk and
innovation than their less experienced colleagues. To interpret these differences as
convergence and divergence effects, rather than simply as indicators of differences
between generational cohorts is to make ambitious inferences which this thesis will
leave as useful hypotheses which deserve fuller investigation.
Finally, one trend common to both parties deserves special attention here,
because it supports the hypothesis that prolonged role-playing
by politicians might
conceivably produce higher levels of identity confusion amongst MPs. Firstly, levels
of dissociative experience clearly drop with increasing age by significant amounts
for both subpopulations (a fall of .63 SDs (p<.01) appears for the Conservatives and
a fall of .29SDs (p<.02) appears for Labour). Yet levels of dissociative experience
drop to reduced extents with the accumulation of parliamentary experience (a fall
of only .37 SDs (p<.05) appears for the Conservatives and a fall of only .01 SDs
appears for Labour). This pattern may be intriguing, especially as it is common to
both parties, yet on its own it constitutes flimsy evidence in support of the hypothesis
that aspects of parliamentary experience somehow influence both Labour and
Conservative MPs to resist the general tendency for older MPs to report fewer
dissociative experiences.
Fortunately, more substantial evidence is at hand. It is not just the dissociative
experience variable that exhibits this pattern for both Labour and Conservative
subpopulations. The aggression variable shows it too. Scores on the aggression scale
dip by .23 SDs with age (a statistically insignificant amount) for the Conservatives,
and yet they increase by .49SDs (p<.01) with accumulating political experience.
Scores on the aggression scale dip by .47 SDs (p<.01) with age for Labour, yet
Vilfredo Pareto’s Sociology
178
they fall by only .26 SDs (p<.05) with accumulating political experience. Hence
findings show that the cohorts of veteran Labour and Conservative MPs who have
served in Parliament for more than nine years retain relatively buoyant scores on
both dissociative experience and aggressiveness, compared with the scores of
their less experienced colleagues, even though the
groups of older Labour and
Conservative MPs both have much lower scores on these variables than their younger
counterparts.
This link between dissociative experience and aggressiveness might well have
been anticipated in view of the preceding discussion of the dissociative experience
construct, where correlations with ‘angry hostility’ and ‘vulnerability’ were
mentioned. What was more interesting was the fact that scores on aggressiveness
were not substantially lower for more experienced MPs, as they were for older MPs.
Hence it will be concluded that this pattern might conceivably represent a tendency
for political role-playing, or perhaps other aspects of political experience,
to inhibit
the slow development of the adult personality towards that state of integration which
Jung labelled ‘individuation’ and Erikson labelled ‘ego integrity’. A more certain
conclusion is that this finding at least lends some narrow support to Pareto’s theory
relating Machiavellian personality to the membership of political elites.
5.7 Seniority within Parliament
The next question was whether any of the above patterns related to the accumulation
of political experience might appear more saliently when the variable tapping
high
level political experience was controlled. Subpopulations were now split between
those who had risen no higher than PPS or Whip,
and those who had managed
to become junior or senior (shadow) ministers. Mean scores were run for both
subpopulations. Ns were around 60 and 17 for the Labour subpopulation and around
21 and 19 for the Conservative subpopulation. Resulting differences between mean
scores moving from MPs with only low level political experience to those with high
level political experience are as follows:
These findings amplify only one trend which appeared to be linked more closely
to parliamentary experience than to increasing age. However, the trend in question is
also perhaps the most intriguing of those to have been highlighted in the last section.
It is the one whereby levels of dissociative experience and aggression remain buoyant
among veteran MPs even though they decline more steeply with age. These trends
are not now accentuated
by any great amounts, yet mean scores hold up better on
both variables and for
both Labour and Conservative subpopulations. Hence it seems
that the tendency for levels of dissociative experience and aggression not to decline
with increasing age amongst veteran MPs of both parties might best be explained not
just with reference to political experience in general but rather with reference to high
level political experience in particular. Remembering once more that dissociative
experience and aggression can both be counted as elements of Machiavellianism-
psychopathy, it may be concluded that this surprising finding
of a relationship
between these two variables and level of eliteness within
both the Labour and
Conservative Parliamentary Parties constitutes a partial upholding of Pareto’s notion