W w w. H a m I l t o n p r o j e c t. O r g acknowledgements

8  

Ten Economic Facts about Crime and Incarceration in the United States

CHAPTER 2:

 The Growth of   

Mass Incarceration in America

The incarceration rate in the United States is now at a historically unprecedented level and is far 

above the typical rate in other developed countries. As a result, imprisonment has become an 

inevitable reality for subsets of the American population. 

5.  Federal and state policies have driven up the incarceration rate over 

the past thirty years.

6.  The U.S. incarceration rate is more than six times that of the typical 

OECD nation.

7.  There is nearly a 70 percent chance that an African American man 

without a high school diploma will be imprisoned by his mid-thirties.

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The Hamilton Project  •  Brookings   9

The incarceration rate in the United States—defined as the number 

of inmates in local jails, state prisons, federal prisons, and privately 

operated facilities per every 100,000 U.S. residents—increased during 

the past three decades, from 220 in 1980 to 756 in 2008, before 

retreating slightly to 710 in 2012 (as seen in figure 5).

The incarceration rate is driven by three factors: crime rates, the 

number of prison sentences per number of crimes committed, and 

expected time served in prison among those sentenced (Raphael 

2011). Academic evidence suggests that increases in crime cannot 

explain the growth in the incarceration rate since the 1980s (Raphael 

and Stoll 2013). However, the likelihood that an arrested offender will 

be sent to prison, as well as the time prisoners can expect to serve, 

has increased for all types of crime (Raphael and Stoll 2009, 2013). 

Given that both the likelihood of going to prison and sentence lengths 

are heavily influenced by adjudication outcomes and the types of 

punishment levied, most of the growth in the incarceration rate can 

be attributed to changes in policy (Raphael and Stoll 2013).

Policymakers at the federal and state levels have created a stricter 

criminal justice system in the past three decades. For example, 

state laws and federal laws—such as the Sentencing Reform Act of 

1984—established greater structure in sentencing through specified 

guidelines for each offense. Additionally, between 1975 and 2002, 

all fifty states adopted some form of mandatory-sentencing law 

specifying minimum prison sentences for specific offenses. In fact, 

nearly three quarters of states and the federal government—through 

laws like the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986—enacted mandatory-

sentencing laws for possession or trafficking of illegal drugs. Many 

states also adopted repeat offender laws, known as “three strikes” 

laws, which strengthened the sentences of those with prior felony 

convictions. These policies, among others, are believed to have made 

the United States tougher on those who commit crime, raising the 

incarceration rate through increased admissions and longer sentences 

(Raphael and Stoll 2013).

The continued growth in the federal prison population stands in 

contrast to recent trends in state prison populations. Between 2008 

and 2012, the number of inmates in state correctional facilities 

decreased by approximately 4 percent (from roughly 1.41 million 

to 1.35 million), while the number of inmates in federal prisons 

increased by more than 8 percent (from approximately 201,000 to 

nearly 218,000) (Carson and Golinelli 2013). This increase in federal 

imprisonment rates has been driven by increases in immigration-

related admissions. Between 2003 and 2011, admissions to federal 

prisons for immigration-related offenses increased by 83 percent, 

rising from 13,100 to 23,939 (DOJ n.d.).

Sources: Austin et al. 2000; Cahalan 1986; personal communication with E. Ann Carson, Bureau of Justice Statistics, January 24, 2014; Census Bureau 

2001; Glaze 2010, 2011; Glaze and Herberman 2013; Raphael and Stoll 2013; Sabol, Couture, and Harrison 2007; Sabol, West, and Cooper 2010; authors’ 

calculations.

Note: Incarceration rate refers to the total number of inmates in custody of local jails, state and federal prisons, and privately operated facilities within that 

year per 100,000 U.S. residents. The three events highlighted in this figure are examples of the many policy changes that are believed to have influenced the 

incarceration rate since the 1980s. For more details, see the technical appendix.

FIGURE 5.

Incarceration Rate in the United States, 1960–2012

Federal policies, such as the Sentencing Reform Act, and state policies, such as “three strikes” legislation, were major contributing factors 

to the 222 percent increase in the incarceration rate between 1980 and 2012.

Chapter 2: The Growth of Mass Incarceration in America

Federal and state policies have driven up the 

incarceration rate over the past thirty years.

5.

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Incar

cer

ation r

at

e per 100,000 r

esiden

ts

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

Twenty-four states adopt or 

strengthen “three strikes” legislation

Sentencing Reform Act of 1984

Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986

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