Working-afhdr-niger-malawi
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- Figure 25 - Malawi: Number of children admitted to Nutrition and Rehabilitation Units and
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Figure 6 confirms that the price of millet has been rising steadily in Niger over the last decade, while Figure 23 shows that the overall trend in the price of millet is characterized by a strong – and only slightly declining – seasonal price component as well as by a 2005 price spike due to a famine. Interestingly, the 2010 famine price component is less pronounced than those of 2001, 2003 and 2005. In turn, Figures 9 and 24 provide the same info for Malawi which also exhibits a growing trend in maize prices over the decade, a strong seasonal price component, and three food price spikes in 2002, 2006 and 2008-9 in correspondence to the crises analyzed above. Figure 24 - Malawi: seasonal and famine price components - monthly data (2000-2010) 0.4
0.6 0.8
1 1.2
1.4 1.6
J a n -0 0 J a n -0 1 J a n -0 2 J a n -0 3 J a n -0 4 J a n -0 5 J a n -0 6 J a n -0 7 J a n -0 8 J a n -0 9 J a n -1 0 in d e x n . Seasonal price component Famine price component
Source: authors’ calculation on FEWSNet data. We now plot these three price components against the number of admissions of malnourished children to feeding centers (as done below for Malawi), conscious of the fact that such data are incomplete (i.e. no data available for 2001-2 and 2010) and subject to an unknown measurement error, and that changes in admission protocols may bias the graphical analysis and the results of the subsequent regression. Figure 25 shows that admissions of children to feeding centers move in line with the seasonal price component and, less so, with the famine price component. Finally, to disentangle quantitatively the importance of long term food prices (and the related production policies), seasonal price variations, and price spikes observed on occasion of famines and we carry out a log-log regression of the number of malnourished children admitted to feeding centres on the three price components discussed above and on two key control variables i.e. the number of feeding centres and the dummy ‘hunger season’. Given the log-log approach followed, the parameters are the average ‘elasticities’ of child admissions to feeding centres given a one percent variation in each one of the regressors (with the obvious exception of the dummy hunger season).
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Table 14 presents the results of such an analysis for the total number of child admissions to feeding centres.
famine price component (top figure) and seasonal price component (bottom) (2003–2009) 0 500 1000 1500
2000 2500
3000 Ja n- 01 Ju l-0 1 Ja n- 02 Ju l-0 2 Ja n- 03 Ju l-0 3 Ja n- 04 Ju l-0 4 Ja n- 05 Ju l-0 5 Ja n- 06 Ju l-0 6 Ja n- 07 Ju l-0 7 Ja n- 08 Ju l-0 8 Ja n- 09 Ju l-0 9 n . 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
1.8 in d e x n . N. child admissions Famine price component
0 500 1000
1500 2000
2500 3000
Ja n- 01 Ju l-0
1 Ja n- 02 Ju l-0 2 Ja n- 03 Ju l-0 3 Ja n- 04 Ju l-0 4 Ja n- 05 Ju l-0 5 Ja n- 06 Ju l-0 6 Ja n- 07 Ju l-0 7 Ja n- 08 Ju l-0 8 Ja n- 09 Ju l-0 9 n . 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 in d e x n . N. child admissions Seasonal price component
Source: authors’ calculations on data from FEWSNet, and Malawi’s Ministry of Health The results clearly suggest that – for the time span indicated - the trend price component (of maize) in Malawi has a negative and significant impact on child admissions to feeding centres, possibly suggesting that, for many households, nominal incomes rose faster than maize prices, while – though in a highly unstable way – food production per capita rose during the last decade (see Table 9) including because of the policy attempt of intensifying output through a more intensive use of fertilizers and other inputs. In contrast, the seasonal maize price component consistently shows in both Model 1 and 2 the largest and most significant impact on child admissions to feeding centres – highlighting in this way the importance of this neglected aspect of child malnutrition. The seasonal price components has on average over 2003-2009 a bigger effect than that of the trend price component and of the large (but infrequent) food price spikes observed in 2006 and 2009. Confirmation of the importance of seasonality on child malnutrition is confirmed by Model 3 in which the ‘hunger
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