Covid-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime

Article type and Year
COVID Student Learning 
Exhibit 5 of 5
The educational losses caused by COVID-19 could hurt long-term GDP growth.
1 
Or instruction as effective as in-classroom instruction.
Learning loss, 
months
Estimated impact, by scenario
Number of additional 
high-school 
dropouts, 
thousand
GDP loss by 2040,
$ billion
Annual earnings 
loss, 
$ billion
44–57
96–124
169–221
Scenario 1: 
In-classroom 
instruction
1
resumes by 
fall 2020
Scenario 2:
In-classroom
instruction
1
resumes by
Jan 2021
Scenario 3: 
In-classroom 
instruction
1 
resumes by 
fall 2021
3.1
6.8
12.4
232
648
1,100
80–125
173–271
306–483
21
Similar effects have been noted for other generations that experienced major learning disruptions. For example, several studies have shown
long-term earnings implications for students whose learning was disrupted during World War II.
22
Using Hanushek and Woessman 2008 methodology to map national per capita growth associated with decrease in academic achievement,
then adding additional impact of COVID drop-outs on GDP. 
8
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime 

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have the infrastructure (such as laptops, tablets, and 
good broadband) needed for remote learning. 
As a blend of remote and in-classroom learning 
becomes possible, more flexible staffing models 
will be required, along with a clear understanding 
of which activities to prioritize for in-classroom 
instruction, identification of the students who 
most need it, and the flexibility to switch between 
different teaching methods. And all this must 
be done while school systems keep the most 
vulnerable students top of mind. That may require 
investment—something that cannot be taken for 
granted if state and local government budgets
are cut. 
The US academic-achievement gap was first 
identified in 1966. Its persistence is troubling. The 
possibility that COVID-19 could make it worse 
deserves focused attention. The achievement gap 
costs the United States hundreds of billions of 
dollars—and also exacts a long-term cost in social 
cohesion. This is a moment—and a challenge—that 
calls for urgency and energy.
Designed by Global Editorial Services 
Copyright © 2020 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
Emma Dorn
is the global Education Practice manager in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office. 
Bryan Hancock 
and 
Jimmy 
Sarakatsannis 
are partners in the Washington, DC, office, and 
Ellen Viruleg
is a senior adviser based in Providence,
Rhode Island. 
The authors wish to thank Priyanka Agrawal, Justice Tention-Palmer, and Josh Williams for their contributions to
this article.
9
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime