Covid-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime

Article type and Year
COVID Student Learning 
Exhibit 1 of 5
The US economy would be significantly larger in 2019 if it had closed 
achievement gaps in 2009.
1 
NAEP 8th-grade math score: comparison of average scores of black and Hispanic students with white students.
2 
NAEP 8th-grade math score: comparison between low-income (eligible for free lunch) students and high-income students.
Lost economic potential in
2019 resulting from gap,
$ billion
% of total 2019 GDP
GDP gap: Black and
Hispanic students
Estimated GDP gains if black and 
Hispanic students performed at 
the same level as white students
1
GDP gap: Income
Estimated GDP gains if low-income 
students performed at the same 
level as high-income students
2
Earnings gap
Estimated additional earnings if 
black and Hispanic students 
performed at the same level as 
white students
1
426–705
332–550
238–318
2.0–3.3
2.0–2.6
7.8–10.5
of GDP
of GDP
of earnings
6
For simplicity’s sake, we have equated this with schools restarting as normal in January 2021, even though the reality is more likely to be a
patchwork of different actions. 
7
There is evidence from online-learning providers’ internal, peer-reviewed research that some virtual-learning experiences can achieve parity
with brick-and-mortar experiences for students, especially those who were struggling academically. 
8
See, for example the 2015 Online Charter School Study of the Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO), credo.stanford.edu.
9
Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts,
Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, West
Virginia, and Wisconsin.
10
Politics K–12
, “Coronavirus and learnings: What’s happening in each state,” blog entry by 
Education Week
staff, April 3, 2020, blogs.edweek.org.
remote learning; they are generally stagnating at 
their current grade levels. Then there are students 
who are not getting any instruction at all; they are 
probably losing significant ground. Finally, some 
students drop out of high school altogether.
We also modeled three epidemiological scenarios. 
In the first—”virus contained”—in-class instruction 
resumes in fall 2020. In the second—”virus 
resurgence”— school closures and part-time 
schedules continue intermittently through the 
2020–21 school year, and in-school instruction 
does not fully resume before January 2021.
6
In the 
third scenario—”pandemic escalation”—the virus 
is not controlled until vaccines are available, and 
schools operate remotely for the entire 2020–21 
school year. 
In our second scenario (in-class instruction does 
not resume until January 2021), we estimate that 
students who remain enrolled could lose three 
to four months of learning if they receive average 
remote instruction, seven to 11 months with lower-
quality remote instruction, and 12 to 14 months if 
they do not receive any instruction at all (Exhibit 2).
Although students at the best full-time virtual 
schools can do as well as or better than those at 
traditional ones,
7
most studies have found that full-
time online learning does not deliver the academic 
results of in-class instruction.
8
Moreover, in 28 
states,
9
with around 48 percent of K–12 students, 
distance learning has not been mandated.
10
As 
a result, many students may not receive any 
instruction until schools reopen. Even in places 
3
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime 

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where distance learning is compulsory, significant 
numbers of students appear to be unaccounted for.
11 
In short, the hastily assembled online education 
currently available is likely to be both less effective, 
in general, than traditional schooling and to reach 
fewer students as well.