Covid-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime

Learning loss and school closures
To that end, we created statistical models to 
estimate the potential impact of school closures 
on learning. The models were based on academic 
studies of the effectiveness of remote learning 
relative to traditional classroom instruction for three 
different kinds of students. We then evaluated 
this information in the context of three different 
epidemiological scenarios.
How much learning students lose during school 
closures varies significantly by access to remote 
learning, the quality of remote instruction, home 
support, and the degree of engagement. For 
simplicity’s sake, we have grouped high-school 
students into three archetypes. First, there are 
students who experience average-quality remote 
learning; this group continues to progress, but at a 
slower pace than if they had remained in school.
5
Second, some students are getting lower-quality 
1
For both 2009 and 2019, we use $25,000 in annual income (in 2009 constant dollars) as the cutoff between low and high income.
2
For an analysis of the interaction between the racial and ethnic achievement gap and the income achievement gap, see Byron G. Auguste,
Bryan Hancock, and Martha Laboissiere, “The economic cost of the US education gap,” June 2009, McKinsey.com.
3
Erik Hanushek, Paul E. Peterson, Laura M. Talpey, and Ludger Woessmann. 
Long-run Trends in the U.S. SES-Achievement Gap
, NBER
National Bureau of Economic Research, working paper number 26764, February 2020; S. F. Reardon, “The widening academic achievement
gap between the rich and the poor: New evidence and possible explanations,” in Greg Duncan and Richard Murnane (Eds.), 
Whither
Opportunity? Rising Inequality and the Uncertain Life Chances of Low-Income Children
, New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2011. 
4
The learning gap has remained almost the same between 2007 (the year of the latest data when we published our 2009 report) and 2019.
Black students scored, on average, 31 points lower than white students did on eighth-grade National Assessment of Education Progress
(NAEP) math assessments in 2007; in 2019 they scored 32 points lower. Hispanic students scored, on average, 26 points lower than white
students did on eighth-grade NAEP math assessments in 2007; in 2019 they scored 24 points lower. The increase in dollar values is the result
of an increase in proportion of black and Hispanic people in the workforce and higher GDP base value in 2019.
5
High-quality remote-learning programs are typically the result careful planning and deliberate approaches—which were not typical of the
COVID-19 transition.
2
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime 

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Exhibit 1