Covid-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime

Article type and Year
COVID Student Learning 
Exhibit 3 of 5
Learning loss will probably be greater for low-income, black, and Hispanic 
students.
1 
Estimates based on income quintiles, with assumption that top 2 income quintiles receive high-quality instruction.
2 
Includes 0.05 standard deviation reduction for black, Hispanic, and low-income students to account for recession impacts (~1 month of 
additional lost learning).
Source: US Census 2018
Quality level of remote instruction, 
% of K–12 students
Average months of learning lost in scenario 2 compared with
typical in-classroom learning
2
Black, Hispanic, and low-income 
students are at higher risk of not 
receiving remote instruction of
average or above-average quality ...
Overall
Average and
above-average
remote instruction
1
Low-quality
remote instruction
1
No
instruction
White
Black
Hispanic
Low income
32
48
20
38
14
21
52
10
46
40
40
49
30
60
... and the result is learning loss
from student disengagement
and/or lack of access
Overall
White
Black
Hispanic
Low income
6.8
6.0
10.3
9.2
12.4
12
Many parents continue to work full-time outside their homes, so their children may not have an adult at home to supervise their learning;
Brooke Auxier and Monica Anderson, “As schools close due to the coronavirus, some U.S. students face a digital ‘homework gap,’” Fact Tank,
March 16, 2020, pewreasearch.org. Many white-collar workers, however, are able to work remotely and thus provide at least some supervision.
Dana Goldstein, Adam Popescu, and Nikole Hannah-Jones, ”As school moves online, many students stay logged out, 
New York Times
, April 6,
2020, nytimes.com. Also, one in ten public school students in New York City lives in shelter housing, which can mean several children sharing a
single room; Anna North, “The shift to online learning could worsen educational inequality,” Vox, April 9, 2020, vox.com.
13
The Curriculum Associates analysis of anonymized data on usage from March to May 2020 of i-Ready software (a personalized learning
system typically used as supplemental instruction by classroom teachers), percentage of log-ins as a portion of pre-closure rates on a weekly
basis, curriculumassociates.com. 
14
To gauge the proportion of students that may fall into our three learning archetypes by race or ethnicity and by income level, we integrated
multiple sources of information, including national surveys of teachers and data on student log-in patterns by race or ethnicity and
income estimates to generate the plausibility of the type of instruction that students may receive given the income quintiles of their families.
Specifically, “No instruction” estimates based on Curriculum Associates data and press reporting, including Mark Lieberman, “Taking
attendance during Coronavirus closures: Is it even worth it?”, 
Education Week
, May 27, 2020, edweek.org; and Howard Blume and Sonali
Kohli, “15,000 LA high-school students are AWOL online, 40,000 fail to check in daily amid coronavirus closures,” 
Los Angeles Times
, March
30, 2020, latimes.com. High- and low-quality instruction estimates are based on US Census income quintiles (Income Data Tables, US Census
Bureau, 2019, census.gov) with the assumption that top two income quintiles receive higher-quality instruction.
5
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime 

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black students may fall behind by 10.3 months, 
Hispanic students by 9.2 months, and low-income 
students by more than a year. We estimate that this 
would exacerbate existing achievement gaps by
15 to 20 percent. 
In addition to learning loss, COVID-19 closures 
will probably increase high-school drop-out rates 
(currently 6.5 percent for Hispanic, 5.5 percent 
for black , and 3.9 percent for white students, 
respectively). The virus is disrupting many of the 
supports that can help vulnerable kids stay in school: 
academic engagement and achievement, strong 
relationships with caring adults, and supportive 
home environments. In normal circumstances, 
students who miss more than ten days of school are 
36 percent more likely to drop out.
15
In the wake of 
school closures following natural disasters, such 
as Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Maria 
(2017), 14 to 20 percent of students never returned 
to school.
16
We estimate that an additional 2 to
9 percent of high-school students could drop out 
as a result of the coronavirus and associated school 
closures—232,000 ninth-to-11th graders (in the 
mildest scenario) to 1.1 million (in the worst one).
17
In addition to the negative effects of learning 
loss and drop-out rates, other, harder to quantify 
factors could exacerbate the situation: for example, 
the crisis is likely to cause social and emotional 
disruption by increasing social isolation and creating 
anxiety over the possibility that parents may lose 
jobs and loved ones could fall ill. Milestones such as 
graduation ceremonies have been canceled, along 
with sports and other extracurricular events. These 
challenges can reduce academic motivation and 
hurt academic performance and general levels
of engagement.
18
The loss of learning may also extend beyond the 
pandemic. Given the economic damage, state 
budgets are already stressed. Cuts to K–12 
education are likely to hit low-income and racial- 
and ethnic-minority students disproportionately, 
and that could further widen the achievement gap.
19