Covid-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime

Likely effects on low-income, black, 
and Hispanic students
Learning loss will probably be greatest among 
low-income, black, and Hispanic students. Lower-
income students are less likely to have access to 
high-quality remote learning or to a conducive 
Exhibit 2
Article type and Year
COVID Student Learning 
Exhibit 2 of 5
In all three scenarios, students are at risk for significant learning loss.
1 
NWEA is a K–12 assessment provider serving over 9,500 schools across the US; their RIT scores are a standardized scaled score that 
measures student performance and progress.
2 
Normal school year growth rates estimated using NWEA data.
3 
52% assumed growth for high-quality instruction.
4 
0% assumed average growth for low-quality instruction. Rates of learning loss may differ by student groups.
Source: Megan Kuhfeld, Dennis Condron, and Doug Downey, 
When does inequality grow?
, 2019; Center for Research on Education 
Outcomes, Online Charter Schools Study, 2015
Projected 6th-grade math performance, example, 
NWEA
1
RIT Scores
Average months of learning lost in scenario 2 compared with typical in-classroom learning
200
210
220
230
240
S O N D J
2019–20 school year
2020–21 school year
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
Scenario 1
Return to
in-class
schooling in
fall 2020
Scenario 2
Return to
in-class
schooling in
Jan 2021
Scenario 3
Return to
in-class
schooling in
fall 2021
Typical in-person:
Students learn
at typical rates with in-classroom
instruction
2
Learning slowdown—average 
remote learning: 
Students learn at 
typical rates until March 2020,
followed by ~52% of learning 
through remote instruction
3
Learning slowdown—low-quality 
remote learning:
Students learn at 
typical rates until March 2020,
followed by no growth or loss
resulting from low-quality remote 
instruction
4
Learning loss—no instruction:
Students lose learning equivalent
to an extended summer slide,
as a result of no instruction or
disengagement from remote
learning
Average remote learning
3–4
Low-quality remote learning
7–11
No instruction
12–14
11
The Curriculum Associates analysis of anonymized data on usage from March to May 2020 of i-Ready software (a personalized learning system
typically used as supplemental instruction by classroom teachers), curriculumassociates.com. 
4
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime 

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learning environment, such as a quiet space with 
minimal distractions, devices they do not need to 
share, high-speed internet, and parental academic 
supervision.
12
Data from Curriculum Associates, 
creators of the i-Ready digital-instruction and 
-assessment software, suggest that only 60 percent 
of low-income students are regularly logging into 
online instruction; 90 percent of high-income 
students do. Engagement rates are also lagging 
behind in schools serving predominantly black and 
Hispanic students; just 60 to 70 percent are logging 
in regularly (Exhibit 3).
13
These variations translate directly into greater 
learning loss.
14
The average loss in our middle 
epidemiological scenario is seven months. But 
Exhibit 3