Covid-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime

Article type and Year
COVID Student Learning 
Exhibit 4 of 5
Loss of learning leads to loss of earning.
1 
Assumes 40-year work life with average salary in 2020 dollars, using 2% inflation and 4.4% wage growth rate, average estimate.
2 
Individual earnings on average over a career of 40 years., average estimate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Brookings Institute; National Center for Education Statistics; National Center for Children in Poverty
Average annualized earnings 
loss, scenario 2, 
$ billion
Overall
White
Black
Hispanic Low income
Estimated effect of learning loss
Number of students affected, million
Average annual earnings lost, $
Average lifetime earnings lost, %
1
Estimated effect of higher number of dropouts
Average number of high-school dropouts, thousand
Average annual earnings lost, $
2
Average lifetime earnings lost, %
1
55.3
1,785
2.2
648
17,218
21.2
27.1
1,348
1.6
263
10,951
13.2
8.3
2,186
3.3
114
11,879
18.1
14.3
1,809
3.0
233
9,280
15.2
11.8
1,642
4.0
NA
NA
NA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dropout
Learning loss
7
COVID-19 and student learning in the United States: The hurt could last a lifetime 

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mitigate the impact of lost learning and the United 
States does not, this will harm US competitiveness. 
By 2040, most of the current K–12 cohort will be 
in the workforce. We estimate a GDP loss of $173 
billion to $271 billion a year—a 0.8 to 1.3 percent hit 
(Exhibit 5).
22 
A call to action
These numbers are sobering—but they are 
not inevitable. If the United States acts quickly 
and effectively, it may avoid the worst possible 
outcomes. But if there is a delay or a lack of 
commitment, COVID-19 could end up worsening 
existing inequities.
It is therefore urgent to intervene immediately 
to support vulnerable students. Many students 
will continue to take advantage of free learning 
resources, but school systems must also think 
creatively about how to encourage ongoing 
learning over the summer. Initiatives might include 
expanding existing summer-school programs, 
working with agencies that run summer camps and 
youth programs so that they add academics to their 
activities, and enlisting corporations to identify and 
train volunteer tutors. Tennessee, for example, is 
recruiting 1,000 college students to tutor kids falling 
behind. New York will be conducting remote summer 
school for 177,700 students (compared with 44,000 
in 2019). Some districts are making digital summer 
learning available (though optional) to all students. 
The necessity of continued remote learning cannot 
be an excuse for inaction or indifference. There 
are examples of high-quality online education, 
and reaching this level should be the general 
expectation. While no one knows exactly what level 
of in-class learning will be possible for the 2020–21 
school year, many students will probably need to 
stay home for at least part of it. Educators need to 
use the summer to learn how to make instruction 
more effective, whatever the scenario. 
Achieving this goal will make it necessary to provide 
teachers with resources that show them how they 
can make virtual engagement and instruction 
effective and to train them in remote-learning best 
practices. It will also be necessary to work with 
parents to help create a good learning environment 
at home, to call upon social and mental-health 
services so that students can cope with the 
pandemic’s stresses, and to ensure that all students 
Exhibit 5