7. Conclusions
We have examined intergenerational mobility in the very long run, using a
unique dataset that combines the tax records from the Italian city of Florence in
1427 and in 2011, and exploiting a favorable setting for this kind of analysis.
We have found that earnings elasticity, across generations that are six
centuries apart, is positive and statistically significant. Its point estimate is about
0.04, much higher than that predicted by traditional models of intergenerational
mobility. We also find evidence of an even stronger real wealth inheritance and of
persistence in certain elite professions. Simple descriptive analysis from transition
matrices also indicates the existence of a glass floor that protects descendants of
the upper class from falling down the economic ladder. Our findings on elasticities
are robust to a number of sensitivity checks, particularly to the lineage imputation
and to the potential selectivity bias due to the heterogeneous survival rates across
families.
We also provide two tentative explanations (and the related empirical
support) for the surprisingly low level of mobility: first, mobility in the past was
much lower than it is today; second, social status and other unobservable variables
may also be highly persistent, implying that earnings elasticity might not decline
geometrically, as commonly thought.
In our view, looking for the same evidence in different cities or nations and
shedding light on the underlying mechanism behind socioeconomic persistence in
the long run represent promising directions for future research.
23
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