FINAL REPORT: DEFINITIONAL MISSION TO AZERBAIJAN:
AZERCOSMOS – AZERSPACE-2 FEASIBILITY STUDY
August 07, 2013
Space Partnership International
17
with the current export control regime. In particular, commercial satellites and related items would
be transferred to the Commerce Department’s less-restrictive export control regulations, and
exports to many U.S.-aligned countries would be eligible for license exceptions.
A satellite
manufacturer will have to obtain export licenses, which historically have not been unreasonably
withheld for satellites providing communications services to non-sanctioned countries.
To our knowledge, there are no sanctions imposed on Azerbaijan for this type of satellite, as
demonstrated through the successful export of the Azerspace-1 satellite by U.S. company Orbital
Sciences. Consequently, we do not see export licenses as a risk factor at this time.
Implementation Schedule
The timeline of a typical satellite system commences upon receiving the
authorization from the ITU
to use a specific orbital slot.
Only once obtained can a satellite owner finalize its technical design, coverage areas, and business
plan. Moreover, depending on the complexity of the satellite design, the construction of a satellite
can take from 2.5 to more than 3 years. Additionally, the procurement process can require as much
as a year before finalization of the satellite contract.
The President of Azerbaijan stated in a speech that Azercosmos will launch its next satellite by
2016, taking into account the time traditionally required to build and launch a satellite. In order to
fulfill that schedule, Azercosmos needs to issue a satellite request for proposal (RFP) and finalize
its negotiations with the ITU (or a potential partner, such as the current owner of a designated
orbital slot) no later than December 2013.
Azercosmos is currently in discussions with several satellite manufacturers to obtain preliminary
support and ideas on how to optimize its next satellite design and services. In parallel, Azercosmos
is in discussions with a half dozen third-party orbital slot holders and hopes to down-select its
potential options to three by the autumn of 2013, with the intent to finalize its negotiations for an
orbital slot by December 2013.
According to ITU experts, there are currently 2,388 ITU filings for Ka-band at the Advance
Publication Information (“API”) stage from 56 countries. The likelihood of obtaining a slot without
an economic agreement with a prior filer is, in our minds, very low. The ITU operates on a first-
come, first-served basis, and grants the filers a 7.5-year window to launch their satellite before
awarding that specific slot and those frequencies to the next in line. The possibility of Azercosmos
reaching an agreement for a slot with a third party represents a promising option, in our opinion,
because many of filers lack the will or ability to build and operate their own satellite, and are
therefore likely to seek partnering opportunities.
FINAL REPORT: DEFINITIONAL MISSION TO AZERBAIJAN:
AZERCOSMOS – AZERSPACE-2 FEASIBILITY STUDY
August 07, 2013
Space Partnership International
18
Figure 3: Implementation Timeline: Concurrent Activities
Economic Fundamentals
The funding needed to implement and operate the second Azerspace satellite system—including
satellite, launch services, insurance, and ground systems—is expected to reach up to $365 USD in
Capital Expenses (CAPEX), depending on the satellite’s final design (see implementation
financing
below).
The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Azercosmos estimated the lifecycle cost for the Azerspace-1
and -2 projects at ~$5 million per year over a 15-year life. This cost specifically addresses
operating and maintenance costs. It is recommended that the selected feasibility study (FS)
Contractor develop a comprehensive business plan, revenue model, and forecast once the satellite
design concept is finalized. The standard industry benchmark for revenues generated from one 36-
MHz transponder is ~$1 million U.S. per year.
ITU Authorizes
Orbital Slot
Satellite Design
Finalized
Coverage Area
Defined
RFP/Procurement
Process - 12
months
Financing
Manufacturing
2.5-3 years