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Over the last few years a growing interest in the likely impact of climate change on migration raised.
Estimates highlight that around 25 million to one billion people could move from their country
because of climate change, in the next 40 years (Jacobson, 1988; Myers, 1997, 2002; Stern et al.,
2006). However there is no large agreement, on this figure, among experts. On the contrary many
authors say that parts of the earth are becoming less habitable due to factors such as climate
change, deterioration of agricultural lands, desertification, and water pollution.
As stated by Susan Martin
9
climate change affects people movements by (i) intensifying natural
disasters, (ii) increasing warming and drought that affects agricultural production and access to
clean water, (iii) rising sea levels and making costals areas uninhabitable and (iv)
rising competition
on natural resources causing conflicts and in turns displacements.
So migration and environment is certainly a relationship that generates attention from International
Organizations, Academia and policy makers.
Nevertheless, there are not scientific evidences of dependence of migrations on environmental
factors as main causes. This is confirmed by the contribution of Hugo
10
which argues that
“Population mobility is probably best viewed as being arranged along a continuum ranging from
totally voluntary migration to totally
forced migration, where reality is somewhere in between”.
As confirmed by the large and exhaustive literature review proposed by the report “Migration,
Environment and Climate Change: assessing the evidence” the lack of data on environmental-
migration nexus is one of the relevant challenges to be faced. Moreover the nexus between climate
change, environmental degradation and migration in contemporary society has not been explored
empirically in a way that generates conclusive results
11
.
After an initial comprehensive analysis of this topic through thories, classifications and
conceptualization of environmental migrants, a further line of research might be proposed in this
field. What is not yet explored is how different factors related to the country of origin (political
instability and conflict, lack of economic opportunities, and lack of access to resources), the country
of destination (availability of employment and demand for workers, political stability) and
interveining factors (ease of transportation, family or social networks, government immigration or
emigration policies, economic ties or social and cultural exchanges) interact with each other to
understand migration behaviour and infer if and how environment affects people decision to
migrate, in respect of other socio-economic factors. A multidisciplinary approach is intended to be
the right method for this topic.
Confirms on this side come from the contribution of the Russel King and Aija Lulle
12
prepared for
the European Commission on research and migration. They approach to the problem by analysing
EU policies and flows, integration and immigration and development nexus and conclude with the
challenging question “does the development which is potentially actioned by migration lead to
more, or to less, migration?”
Studies on this field do not clarify the magnitude of the development-migration nexus.
9
Susan Martin,
Migration, Environment and Climate Change: assessing the evidence, International
Organization for Migration, 2009
10
Hugo, G.,
Environmental concerns and international migration, International Migration Review, 30(1): 105–131, 1996.
11
Black, R. et al.,
Demographics and climate change: future trends and their policy implications for migration. Report prepared for the Department for
International Development (DFID) by the Development Research Centre
on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty, University of Sussex,
2008.
12
King and Lulle,
Research on migration: facing realities and maximising opportunities. A policy review. European Commission, 2016