”Analyse av den aktuelle politiske og sosio-økonomiske situasjonen i Latin Amerika”

6. Conclusions: Common issues and trends in Latin America today

We conclude this report with some reflections about the current political and socio-economic situation in Latin American following the same methodological framework applied for individual countries: Actors, Issues & dynamics, Natural Resources, and Trends. More than generalizing, our aim is to highlight common issues and trends that can serve as a basis for the identification and formulation of specific recommendations regarding future Norwegian development cooperation with Latin America.

Actors

Of the countries analysed in this report, all are democratically elected regimes. Furthermore, with the exception of Colombia, they are all either centre or centre-left governments. It can be useful to consider the current regimes as occupying different positions in the political spectrum moving from right to left, rather “only” right, centre or left. Even in those cases when social agendas diluted on the transition from program to actual government policy (as in Gutiérrez’s government in Ecuador, and Toledo in Peru to some extent), the majority of the regimes keep social programs and anti-poverty policies high on the agenda. Centre-left orientations are also noticeable in policies regarding management of natural resources. The “pink tide” description of the current regimes, rather than “red” seems accurate, as governments maintain an equal emphasis on the need for economic stability and investment to sustain growth. The upcoming elections in Peru, Ecuador, Brazil and Venezuela later this year will most likely reinforce the trend.

Concerning political parties, the first thing to be noticed is the limited popular support and structural weakness of traditional parties, particularly conservative parties. In many cases, their constituencies have been extremely reduced. The political party system has been in crisis since the 1980s; new parties and coalitions are formed for every major election. Independent candidates can get away with popular support at the expense of well established political parties. In those cases where socialist parties have succeeded in gaining office (Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia to some extent), it happened after several failed attempts. While in some countries a united left is yet to be seen (as in Peru and Ecuador), in others a democratic left has started to gain ground in the political scene (as in Colombia). In both cases, the arrival of leftist political parties to presidential offices in the near future is unlikely. This does not imply, however, that leftist-oriented groups such as the indigenous movement in Ecuador, and possibly the nationalist party in Peru, can win presidential elections sooner that expected.
Regarding social and popular movements, Latin American societies show a multiplicity of popular organizations, particular at the local level. But only in a few countries have they managed to form alliances or common platforms to move forward in their struggles and demands (as in Bolivia and Brazil). In our view, it is not the absence of local popular organizations that is limiting the political participation of excluded groups of citizens (poor, women, indigenous groups), but rather the absence or weakness of existing mechanisms for social inclusion and participation, with other organizations as well as vis-á-vis public institutions. Processes of decentralisation which have been implemented in a number of countries are establishing the basis for the participation of local populations and their representatives in local affairs. The challenge is two-fold: to strengthen and institutionalize these mechanisms, and to have local actors capable to formulate demands and assert their citizenship rights.
In some countries, such as Bolivia and Ecuador, indigenous peoples and their organizations have played an active role in the political arena in the last decade. They have significant mobilization potential, and enjoy legitimacy and representation among the local population. Together with Peru, these three countries have the largest share of indigenous population in the region. Indigenous movements have proven able to achieve political objectives, particularly when joining forces with other social actors, such as trade unions and grassroots organisations. It is worth noting that, with few exceptions, indigenous groups demands are not only in accordance with the nation-state model, but that their claims are often based on citizenship rights valid for entire nation. Claims for social and political participation need not therefore be in contradiction with indigenous identities. Of course, national context will determine to which extent inclusion and participation is allowed and advanced.
Women’s organisations are common in Latin America today, either as autonomous groups, or as participants in a variety of social programs implemented by public and private organisations. The advancement of women’s rights in some South American countries is a positive development. Several countries have their own ministries for women’s affairs and gender equity. Increasing numbers of girls and women have gained access to basic and higher education, just as boys and men do. Social inequality affecting the women’s welfare is closely connected to class and income; poor women (and children) are thus a vulnerable group. Women’s organisations work intensely for the advancement of poor women’s needs and interests.
Issues & Dynamics

In all the countries analysed here, the current regimes have been democratically elected. Democracy has made its way in the region, and in spite of many weaknesses, it is in the process of consolidation. Presidential, congressional and local elections have become common practice. Electoral participation has increased gradually in the past 20-30 years; the average turn-out for the region is 73%. There are large differences, however, among countries. In Peru, where voting is compulsory, 89% of registered voters participated in the last presidential elections. In Colombia, only 45% of voters used their right to vote. Mistrust in the political party system and public institutions might help explaining low electoral participation in some countries, but only to a certain extent. If democracy is to become the organising principle in society, there is a need for an open and dynamic relation between a state that can guarantee citizenship rights, and a civil society that is both aware and capable of exercising the same rights. There are still challenges ahead before democracy and democratic practices are fully established and institutionalised in South America. People’s mistrust to the political system has many sources, such as non-responsiveness to local needs, inefficiency, and corruption. Mistrust diminishes state legitimacy and authority. The challenge is how to make public institutions – both at central and local level – more responsive to citizen’s needs. Citizens’ participation is vital in this regard, not only in monitoring public institutions but also in setting the agenda for what is the state ought to do.

Similarly, the rule of law in South America is still in the making. Corruption and human rights abuses are still part of the daily lives of citizens. In some countries this is linked to crime and illegal activities, such as drug-trafficking in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. Colombia is the only country experiencing an internal armed conflict, affecting the lives of thousands of people everyday. In Chile, Argentina and Uruguay (and recently Peru), the human rights agenda springs from past experiences of abuses committed during the military dictatorships of the 1970s-80s. There is a need for continuous engagement in human rights issues and civil society organizations active in this field, as a way to fight impunity and strengthen people’s trust in justice and respect for human life.
Closely related to democracy and the rule of law, social and political demands for constitutional reform and new national constitutions are becoming a widely contested issue. This regional trend was initiated by Venezuela, with the National Constitution of 1999. In Bolivia, the call for a constitutional assembly and a new constitution was one of the main issues in President Morales’ electoral campaign. The nationalist candidate in Peru attempted a similar move, without success; while in Ecuador, the indigenous movement has already announced its importance in the electoral agenda. Social movements and political actors are increasingly becoming aware of the potential and strength embedded in national constitutions, not only as a tool for the consolidation of the rule of law, but also to work towards social inclusion and equality.
At the basis for both national policy and popular demands, is social exclusion, or rather, how to fight social exclusion and poverty. In spite of increasing economic growth in the past five years in most South American countries, large numbers of the population still live in poverty. More often than not, poverty is combined with other forms of social exclusion, such as discrimination against indigenous groups. All national governments in the region address this through a variety of social programs, like the misiones in Venezuela or Fome Zero in Brazil, with different degrees of success. While these initiatives are indeed necessary, governments have increasingly become aware that the unequal distribution of wealth in South American countries lay at the heart of the problem.
Processes of redistribution have enormous political and socio-economic implications, and are always strongly contested. These processes can generate support and resistance among local populations, depending on how the reforms affect individual actors. To manage natural resources in a manner that advances a social agenda implies the implementation of democratic practices in the economic organisation of society. Institutionalisation, transparency, accountability and participation are as important and valid here as in the political arena. Few national governments attempt or have sufficient popular support to carry out such reforms. Venezuela is attempting to reform the oil sector; land reform in Brazil is still on the government’s waiting list, while in Colombia, it is high on the people’s agenda, but not for the government. Claims from local populations to take part of the benefits originating from the exploitation of natural resources are often met with counterarguments based on productivity, efficiency and profit maximization. Norway’s historical experience proves the invalidity of such arguments. Natural resources can be managed in a variety of ways that are both efficient and advance national and popular demands.
Natural Resources

Most of the countries analysed in this report are rich in natural resources. National economies are thus based in the exploitation, production and export of these resources. This is not necessarily unproblematic. Much of the current debate about natural resource management focuses on oil and gas, not only because of their strategic importance in the global market, but also to their role in achieving national development goals and supporting specific nation-state building projects. State control over PDVSA in Venezuela became to signify independence from traditional power elites. In Bolivia, the nationalisation of the gas industry became a symbol of national sovereignty. Similar processes can be observed with other resources such as copper and gold in other countries. In addition, the effects of extractive activities upon the natural environment and local population living in/around the production sites have to be taken into account.

The current South American regimes are now choosing two different approaches in their management of natural resources. In the first one, the state increases taxation on private companies in a market friendly environment; this would entail more income to the state coffers as long as the system is open and there is real competition between companies. The second approach is to let state companies take care of extractive activities within the sector. This has led to the expropriation of private properties through enforced joint ventures. Most of the resource rent is then channelled through the state companies. The former solution is possibly more efficient technically, but more difficult to audit for national governments. The latter solution is normally less efficient, yet easier to control by national governments. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. Independently of which path is chosen, the most important thing to bear in mind is that national governments act transparently, and with a deep commitment to make natural resources work for the entire population and not only for the elites. The new South American regimes, with strong mandates based on broad popular support can have a chance to take the first steps towards a much needed redistribution of wealth in the region.
General Trend

The South American region is undergoing a process of change. The political orientation of the new regimes is more responsive to popular demands than previous ones precisely because they represent popular sectors of the population. Through formal democracy, these sectors are acquiring political representation. The implications of much needed reforms based in the redistribution of wealth are so comprehensive that they require clear mandates and broad popular support to be implemented. There are many obstacles along the way, such as private interests, political divisions, corruption, and these cannot be underestimated. However, the change of direction of political regimes in the region offers a window of opportunity to initiate a process of structural change in South America. Hopefully, the new governments and the people they represent will live up to the challenge that this historical opportunity offers them.