”Analyse av den aktuelle politiske og sosio-økonomiske situasjonen i Latin Amerika”

Ecuador

The current political and socio-economic situation in Ecuador can be characterised as a tense period of waiting. The current administration is an interim government appointed by the national congress to replace former elected President Gutiérrez, who was removed from office in April 2005 after a long period of popular protests against his increasing authoritarianism. New presidential elections are scheduled for October 3, 2006. Current President Palacio (Gutiérrez’ former vice-president) aimed to bring political stability to this otherwise most unstable Andean country, without much success. Events in the oil sector lately can be seen as his last attempt to settle things down before the country starts the electoral campaign for full.

Actors

Former President Lucio Gutiérrez joins a long list of presidents in Ecuador to be removed from office due to popular protests against their rule; Jamil Mahuad in 2000 and Abdalá Bucaram in 1997 are the most recent ones. Until Gutiérrez was elected in 2002, Ecuadorian politics had been dominated by the traditional political parties, representing the economic elite and power structures. This changed in the 2002 elections, where neither of the candidates going for the second round came from the traditional parties, but from independent lists. In fact, the four lists that obtained most voter support (between 14 and 20%) belonged to left and centre-left parties. Gutiérrez' list was a coalition between the indigenous movement and leftist parties, which gave a sense of hope and alternative to voters from the poorest sectors of the population. Two years later, disappointment was widespread. The Gutiérrez administration abandoned its leftist background, and became in the eyes of its constituency, more "servile" to US interests. The presence of American troops in the Manta military base to support the war on drugs, his "re-organization" of the Supreme Court of Justice, and finally the discharge of corruption cases against two former presidents led protestors to call for his resignation. Gutiérrez sought refuge in Brazil, was later detained and jailed in Ecuador for a few months; he was recently sat free, and has announced his candidacy for the upcoming elections.

So far have only four candidates officially announced their participation in the presidential elections. Two candidates are considered as the most likely to win the election , or at least, make it to the second round: León Roldos, from Red Ética y Democrática, a coalition led by the socialist party and gathering support from other minor leftist parties; and Rafael Correa from Alianza Paíz, a centre-left coalition. Correa hoped to gain support from the indigenous movement, but ECUARUNARI and CONAIE (see below) have recently announced that they will present their own presidential candidate to the upcoming elections.
The outgoing administration led by President Alfredo Palacio has had to deal with increasing criticism for not being responsive to popular demands. Some observers argue that the only reason why he has not been removed yet is that new elections are on their way. Palacio was also faced with a reticent congress, so his plans for a Constitutional Assembly to amend Ecuador's 1998 Constitution had to be abandoned. The recent move of closing a contract with an American oil company might remain as the most notorious action undertaken during his administration.
The political instability in Ecuador is reflected in the short lives of political parties and electoral lists. The opposite is the case with the indigenous movement, which has gathered strength since the 1980s, and has demonstrated an extraordinary power of mobilization time and again. It is only in the last decade however, that the indigenous movement has entered the sphere of party politics with congressional candidates and in alliances for presidential elections. In 2002, the indigenous movement supported Gutiérrez through the Movimiento Pluri-nacional Unificado Pachakutik – Nuevo País. The indigenous movement comprises several regional organizations which form part of a national confederation, CONAIE (Confederación de Naciones Indígenas de Ecuador). Ecuarunari (Confederación de los Pueblos de Nacionalidad Kichua del Ecuador) represents the highland kichua population, and is the most influential member of CONAIE, while) represents the peoples of the Amazonian rainforest. A similar organisation exists also for smaller ethnic groups from the coastal region. The indigenous movement's agenda does indeed include a number of demands and entitlements for indigenous peoples in Ecuador; their proposal however, is one that calls for the construction of a modern state that responds to the needs of all Ecuadorians, based on participatory democracy and a qualitative transformation of the way state and nation are conceptualized.
Issues & Dynamics

According to official figures for 2005, 52% of the population live under the national poverty line. In rural areas, where the majority of indigenous people live, the situation is even more serious. Eight out of every ten people are poor in rural areas, while in urban areas, four out of ten are in a similar situation. Social demands raised by political actors and social movements are thus based in a context of poverty and social inequality.

One of the most contested issues in Ecuador during the last year has been the government's attempt to reach a free trade agreement with USA. The negotiations started under the Gutiérrez administration, and were continued by Palacio – in spite of continuous demonstrations by trade unions and the indigenous movement, as well as other social actors. The last round of negotiations that took place in March provoked widespread mobilizations across the country. The indigenous movement has played a vital role in these mobilisations, and has succeeded in linking the FTA issue with other demands. Under the banner of "Popular and indigenous uprising against the FTA – yes to life, not to FTA, out with Oxy, no to Plan Colombia", the indigenous movement put forward a platform that rejects what is suspected to be US influence in Ecuador – through trade liberalisation, oil companies, and military presence. The issue against Oxy (Occidental Petroleum) is a long standing one for the indigenous movement, due to the environmental damaged to indigenous lands caused by oil production. Through the indigenous movement the struggle against the FTA and the foreign exploitation of natural resources became one joint cause.
Last month the government approached its American counterpart to resume FTA negotiations. The US responded negatively, expressing that negotiations would be on hold until Ecuador resolved a number of pending investment disputes. Among these are the US objections to the new petroleum law which was approved by Congress in mid-April. The US questions how it can trust Ecuador to honour future FTA commitments if it does not honour the contracts that oil companies have negotiated with the state oil company.
Given the above situation, it was therefore surprising that the government announced on May 15 the cancellation of the oil operation contracts of Occidental, on the grounds that the company had violated the terms of its contract by selling 40% of its assets to Canadian EnCana in 2000 without Ecuador's approval (the shares have since then been sold to Chinese company). Thirty other violations were alleged. The cancellation implies the immediate delivery of all assets to the state company PetroEcuador. The government gave Oxy "60 days to rectify the problems cited or provide evidence disproving the allegations".
The US administration responded by freezing FTA negotiations with Ecuador until there is clarification about the action taken by the government, and about the payment of compensation to the company for their assets and production losses. Oxy is the largest foreign investor Ecuador, with a production of 101,000 barrels per day. Oxy's production in Ecuador is estimated to be 7% of its worldwide production, and 20% of Ecuador´s total oil production. Ecuador is also the fifth oil producer in Latin America.
Indigenous movements have greeted the government's action, considering it a triumph for their struggle against the foreign exploitation of natural resources. Business sectors in Ecuador seem to be divided on the issue. The effect that this will have on the FTA is considerable, in spite of the government's reassurance that involves Oxy along, and not the oil sector at large. Another challenge is whether PetroEcuador is capable of managing such large operations as the Oxy production sites involve. The government announced that state-owned oil companies in the region would be approached to consider joint operations in the fields previously run by Oxy. On Saturday 20, it was confirmed that the minister of energy had travelled to Venezuela to meet his counterpart to discuss collaboration in the oil production.
Natural Resources

The petroleum sector in Ecuador contributes about 12 % of the GDP and 40 % of exports (World Bank 2005). Oil is exploited in the Amazonian jungle and brought to the cost through two pipelines. The newest one started to operate in 2003, increasing profitability considerably not only due to the doubling of capacity, but also because different qualities could now be separated.

The state company PETROECUADOR controls the bulk of the oil reserves and more than 50 % of production, even though local companies and multi-national corporations have become more active since the mid 1990s. In contrast to natural gas, the price of oil is set on the world market. According to the World Bank (2005), private companies are now investing more than 1 bill. USD pr year⁶, while the state investments have shrunk to less than 90 mill USD. A new hidrocarbures law was approved by congress in mid-April 2006, increasing the share of return from foreign companies from 20% to 50% of profits. The law is originally designed to facilitate the entry of private firms, both in production and not at least “down-stream” activity, i.e. refining and industry (but the cancellation of the Oxy contract might be giving the opposite signal to foreign investors).
The popular protest in March this year against the Free Trade Agreement to be signed with USA was able to stop the transport of oil in order to influence the government. This coincided with union strikes in the oil producing regions, who demand a larger share of the government resource tax income for their provinces. This demand is partially addressed by the new petroleum law.
Trends

Both the FTA and the cancellation of the Oxy contract will most likely influence the electoral campaign to come. Candidates will have to consider carefully their positions in respect to these issues, if they want to secure popular support. Whoever has the indigenous movement’s support is likely to become the next president. At the same time, the indigenous movement has the power to remove presidents if they do not fulfil their promises. On May 20, it was confirmed that the indigenous movement will present their own presidential candidate for the next elections, possibly as a result of the bitter experience with former President Gutiérrez. The experience of Evo Morales in Bolivia is possibly a source of inspiration for the indigenous movement in Ecuador, but internal struggles can be expected regarding not only the candidate, but also about the movement’s capacity to assume the national government. Other issues that will dominate the electoral debate will be poverty, corruption, and a constitutional assembly. Unfortunately, the first two were also first on the agenda in the 2002 elections; while the constitutional assembly is a pressing issue for the indigenous movement.

With the Oxy move President Palacio possibly aimed to stabilize the country before elections. According to some observers, however, what he just did is to open Ecuador's door to the leftist "pink-tide" going around in Latin America. These are indeed very exciting times for Ecuador.
Ecuador in the region. Ecuador is member of the Andean Community of Nations, and joined Peru and Colombia in initiating negotiations with USA for a free trade agreement. Its relationship with Colombia has been affected by the reception of increasing number of refugees escaping the armed conflict. The use of the Manta base to support the US-led war on drugs and Plan Colombia has caused controversy internally. Until now Ecuador has kept a low profile concerning regional leaderships; this situation might change after the upcoming presidential elections.