”Analyse av den aktuelle politiske og sosio-økonomiske situasjonen i Latin Amerika”

Brazil

The political and socio-economic situation in Brazil today is marked by a debate on the achievements and limitations of the current administration, as congressional and presidential elections are fast approaching (October 2006). The main question is whether President Lula be re-elected and if so, under what conditions. The expectations raised by his presidency have not been completely satisfied, particularly in relation to land reform and social issues. Corruption scandals within the government party last year cast a shadow over the good intentions – and practices – of Lula’s government. Is this to be understood more as a symptom of weak democratic institutions, or just another case of private greed and the abuse of power? Voter’s answer to this question might determine whether the president will have the chance to continue his reform program in a second term.

Actors

Current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected in 2002, with more than 60% of the vote on the second round of elections. Popularly known as “Lula”, he was first a union leader from the metal sector in the 1970s, and became later co-founder of the left-wing) in the early 1980s. According to observers, PT has moved throughout the years from being a traditional socialist to a modern social democrat party. After losing three presidential elections, Lula toned down leftist policies and discourse in the 2002 elections, moving PT towards centre. This has involved a more pragmatic approach to economic and social policies, one that has an active place for market and private sector involvement in the country’s development.

The government’s main opposition party is the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), whose presidential candidate for the upcoming elections is Geraldo Alckmin, current governor of the State of São Paulo. This party’s strength lays in having previous government experience, as it ruled Brazil for eight years under the presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Another large opposition party is the Liberal Front Party (PFL), which entered into coalition governments with PSDB in the 1990s. The Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro, PMDB) is largely a centrist party with no clearly established ideology, including a range of liberals as well as the former guerrilla movement MR-8. The party is dominated by local and regional leaders, and became the third largest party in Brazil at the 2002 elections. It is worth noting that the Brazilian party system is still fragile, posing several challenges to the institutionalization of democratic practices. Congressional representatives can change from one party to the other easily, showing often more loyalty to their economic power base than to political parties. “Caciquism” and clientelistic practices are still very common.
There are numerous popular organizations, trade unions and social movements in Brazil, formulating a wide range of demands and causes, from indigenous people’s rights to environmental issues, community services to popular participation. Among the most important actors is the Central Única dos Trabalhadores (CUT - United Workers Central), the largest national trade union in Brazil, which organizes and represents the interests of workers from in the public and private sectors, in active service as well as retired, from urban and rural settings. CUT was founded in 1983, and works for the protection of labour rights, better living and working conditions, and the transformation of Brazil towards democracy and socialism. 3326 labour organizations are affiliated to CUT, constituting over 7 million associated workers and over 22 million members. CUT has been an important source of popular support for the PT government, yet it has chosen to maintain its autonomy in order to continue fighting for the rights of working people when the government is pressed to compromise.
The Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem terra (MST – Movement for Landless Rural Workers) is a significant political actor due to the size of its constituency (approximately 1.5 million members in 23 out of 27 states), and the political character of its demand – land reform. MST has close affinity to PT, and has usually supported the party in political campaigns; the movement played a vital role in Lula’s election in 2002. In return, MST expected government action regarding land reform and the redistribution of land among landless peasants. MST leadership has expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s performance in this issue, declaring that it will continue its role as social movement, organizing the poor in the countryside in their struggle for agrarian reform.
The Catholic Church plays an important role in Brazil, in religious, social and cultural terms. Approximately 2/3 of the population consider themselves Catholics. The 2nd Vatican Council (1962-65) had a strong impact in Brazil. The Liberation Theology which developed soon after the Council, brought forward different political perspectives. Catholic “community bases” constituted a network or social movement which moved the church towards the left, mobilizing for political and social purposes. The Bishop’s Conference engaged itself also in social issues, human rights and land reform. In the 1980s, the left-oriented groups of the Catholic Church found themselves on the defensive. Today community bases are many, but less than before. Pressure from the Vatican has increased; radical bishops have been moved to more peripheral parishes, while conservative bishops have taken the lead. Charismatic groups within the church developed in opposition to liberation theology, with the Vatican’s approval.
The Catholic Bishop’s Conference still represents a critical voice in social issues, gathering a variety of social movements in their annual march against poverty (Grito dos Excluidos). The Comissao Pastoral de Terra (CPT – Pastoral Commission on Land) is part of the Catholic Church’s left actively working with land laborers and poor peasants on the issue of land reform. CPT played a vital role in the formation of MST. Leftist Catholics are active in the political debate, many of them also members of PT. A few have received sanctions from the Vatican or their congregation due to their political engagement. Other religions active in Brazil include Candomble (Afro), Umbanda, and Espirita. Chistian evangelical churches are also present.
Women’s movements in Brazil have developed since the 1980s, when a National Council on Women's Rights (Conselho Nacional de Direitos da Mulher) was created. Originally, the feminist movement was closely connected to human rights movements and resistance to the military regime. In the 1980s and 1990s, attention shifted to violence against women, especially domestic violence and sexual abuse and harassment. One original response to this kind of problem was the creation of special police stations for women. Women’s movements also mobilized support for reproductive health and rights. Most recent issues include HIV/Aids, gun control and urban violence, and the situation of poor, black women.
Issues & Dynamics

During the 2002 presidential campaign, President Lula declared himself in favour of an economic policy that would go along a similar path as the one initiated by the previous government. Former President Cardoso had introduced a number of economic reforms in the 1990s, giving priority to privatisation and the opening up of national markets. Brazil had achieved economic stabilization, and Lula’s PT knew that the arrival of a leftist government could cause fear among investors, with a negative impact upon the economy. Inequality would thus be primarily approached through social sector policy. Once in office, Lula first ensured the stabilization of the economy, and later introduced a pension reform (mainly to reduce a large deficit), and a modest increase in the minimum wage. Little progress has been made in agrarian reform. Through sound macroeconomic policy policies, the Brazilian economy experienced economic growth in 2004 (4.9%), the highest growth rate in ten years. Government policies have been the key element for restoring credibility. In 2005, for the first time in three decades, Brazil is experienced an external and fiscal equilibrium and low inflation. Relatively low economic growth remains a persistent concern (World Bank 2005).

With such a large and dynamic market however, the main challenged is not necessarily growth, but unemployment and extreme poverty; ultimately, the extremely uneven distribution of wealth in Brazil. Nearly a quarter of its population (totalling 183 million people) live on one dollar a day. Poverty is concentrated in the North East where around 60% of the countries’ poor live; ethnic minorities such as indigenous and afro-descendent groups are especially affected by inequalities in living standards and opportunities (DFID 2004). Poverty is also widespread in urban areas, where thousands of people live in favelas, slum areas in the outskirts of major cities. An additional problem in the urban setting is high levels of crime and violence; in many of these areas, the state is unable to provide any form of security for its citizens.
The challenged posed by extreme poverty and inequality has been met by the PT government through a comprehensive social development strategy known as Fome Zero (Zero Hunger). Fome Zero aims to guarantee the right to food of the poorest sectors of the population, focusing on food security as a way to combat extreme poverty. Fome Zero is an inter-ministerial effort, and includes 31 different and complementary programs, organised along four programmatic areas. Bolsa Familia (Family Grants Program) is one of the main instruments of Fome Zero; it provides cash transfers to poor families in exchange for their compliance with certain education and health actions. Families are responsible for sending their children to school and for following pre-natal and child health care programs. Poor women and children are the main target beneficiaries. Bolsa Família is now the largest “Conditional Cash Transfer” program in the developing world, reaching about 8 million families (seven out of 10 poor families). The program’s goal is to reach all families currently living under the poverty line by the end of 2006. The program seems to be successful, to judge for the number of families reached and the interest there has been among beneficiaries. Yet it has been limited to some extent by under-funding and clientelistic practices. Results from the program’s evaluation, which is taking place this year, will be very useful for the implementation of similar initiatives in other developing countries.
The issue of land distribution is highly controversial in Brazil, where 1% of the landowners control roughly 50% of arable land. According to the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, “land should be used for the benefit of all society”. Based on this statement, MST has carried out an ad-hoc land reform since 1984 through sit-ins and land occupations of unoccupied/unproductive land. By 2003, MST had secured land for 350,000 families. In 2006, 250,000 families still live in encampments awaiting the government’s recognition. MST also provides a wide range of services in its 1600 government recognized settlements, such as schools, farming cooperatives, health posts and literacy programs.
In spite of the relative success MST has shown through years of struggle, their efforts reach only part of a problem affecting millions of landless peasants in Brazil. According to a recent report (COHA 2006), President Lula pledged to give land to 400,000 families, and allow 500,000 squatters to acquire formal titles to the land on which they live. Although the government reports that 235,000 families have been given land, MST is disappointed with the limited progress being made, and has announced early this year record land occupations as part of its “days of struggle”. In their view, the PT electoral victory has not been enough to secure significant changes in the agrarian sector. Accordingly, MST will continue to promote social struggle leading towards the formation of an agrarian model that gives priority to food production and land distribution. The current MST campaign declares the movement as an “anti-neoliberal, anti-imperialist, popular and national project.” What this actually means in terms of the upcoming elections remain to be seen.
Natural Resources

A considerable part of the world’s natural resources is found in Brazil. The Amazonian rainforest constitutes the largest remaining tropical forest in the world. It covers 5 % of the world's land and it is thought to be the most diverse ecosystem on Earth, playing a vital role in keeping the world's climate stable. This rainforest is home to nearly 10 % of the world's mammals and a staggering 15 % of the world's known land-based pant species, with as many as 300 species of tree in a single hectare. The Amazon in Brazil alone is also home to more than 20 million people, including an estimated 220,000 people from 180 different indigenous nations, who rely on the forest for their way of life. All this is threatened by deforestation fuelled by a demand for cheap supplies of plywood and tropical timber locally and abroad or the agricultural invasion to grow commodities such as soy mainly used to feed animal in European countries. Between 60 and 80 % of all logging in the Brazilian Amazon is estimated to be illegal and more than one million hectares within the Amazon rainforests are already being use to grow soy.

The Brazilian economy constitutes about half the GDP of the region, a fact that has led to an energy consumption nearly three times as large as its industrialised neighbour Argentina or energy producer Venezuela (Table 6). Brazil has become self-sufficient in oil, and has now discovered extensive gas fields offshore in the Santos Basin just outside Sao Paulo, with 420 bill. m³ in reserves. It will take between 6-10 years and USD 2.5 bill to develop the project, but the profitability is probably positive; technical complexity could be compensated by the short transport distance to the main consumption centres. In addition, there are several potential gas fields inland in the Amazon basin, but the long transport distance has until now implied prohibitive costs. The Bolivian fields are actually closer; this is why Brazil has preferred to invest in the pipeline from Sao Paulo to Santa Cruz in Bolivia. However, domestic demand has actually been lower than expected; this implies that Brazil has actually paid for unused quantities in the “take-or-pay” contracts with Bolivia (Fagundes 2004). The decision whether to exploit own resources or import will hence depend on both the financial profitability and the political risk that contracts might be broken.
The state (owned) company Petrobras is still the main player in the Brazilian energy market. It enjoyed a monopoly position until the new competition law was introduced in 1997 which opened for both private and foreign companies to enter at most stages in the production and marketing process. The National Petroleum Agency was simultaneously created to take care of the state regulation function of the petroleum industry which was hence separated from the production set. The legal framework for the petroleum business resembles in this way the Norwegian system. However, due to the leading position of the state company in most parts of the production and distribution chain, competition is restricted and foreign companies are still reluctant to join in with large scale investments. Compared to the size of the Brazilian economy, the petroleum sector constitutes less than 3 % of the GDP, while the mining sector’s share is less than half a percent. Fortunately, Brazil is not dependant on natural resources as a source of tax income. The country is actually able to collect a considerable amount of normal sales and income taxes, with total taxation constituting about 35 % of GDP.
Trends

The corruption scandals of 2005 have certainly deteriorated the image of both PT leadership and the president, in spite the fact that no direct link to the presidency has been found. Top PT leaders close to the president renounced their positions following a series of investigations. One of PT’s campaign issues has been the fight against corruption. The fact that bribery was used to secure votes to pass government policies in congress does not make matters easier. Paradoxically, corruption was an accepted tool as long as it was used for “good” causes. This case clearly demonstrated the fragility of democratic institutions and the implicit disrespect for democracy in Brazil – even with a popularly supported leftist party in government.

Opinion polls show an improvement in the president’s popularity in the past months, also among the poorest sectors of the population. If this trend continues, President Lula’s re-election is the most likely scenario, giving him the opportunity to expand the governments social and welfare programs. The widespread legitimacy that the land reform issue enjoys among the Brazilian public places MST in an important position regarding re-election. A re-vamping of the land issue can be expected in the upcoming electoral campaign.
Brazil in the region. Brazil occupies a position of leadership in the region, both in economic and political terms; furthermore, the country has the most professional foreign service in Latin America. Brazil has strengthened economic ties with Venezuela in the past years, signalling a need not to isolate the Chávez regime. Brazil is perceived in the region as keeping the balance between other more vocal administrations. This was put to a test in the recent meeting between the presidents of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Venezuela to solve issues concerning the nationalization of the gas industry in Bolivia. In the event of further radicalization or polarization within the region, Brazil is likely to reinforce its leadership by assuming a mediator/conciliator role – possibly for everybody’s relief. At the same time, Brazil is assuming a position of leadership at the global level, promoting a social and economic agenda for the developing world.