”Analyse av den aktuelle politiske og sosio-økonomiske situasjonen i Latin Amerika”

Chile

Chile can be considered as one of the most stable countries in South America, both in economic and political terms. Economic growth has been present for the last decades, and since the return to democracy in 1990, the government has been led by centre-left coalition “Concertación”, which has been elected to office four consecutive times. The last general elections took place in December 2005; in a second-round last January, Chile elected its first female president, Michelle Bachelet. Also for the first time (since 1990) the president has majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.

Actors

The last electoral process was led by two multi-party coalitions, popularly known as “Concertación” and “Alianza”. The former, Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia gathers four centre-left parties, the most prominent one being the Christian Democrat Party. President Bachelet herself belongs to the Socialist Party. The latter, “Alianza por Chile” gathers right-wing parties “Renovación Nacional” and “Unidad Demócrata Independiente”; the presidential candidate and leader of RN was industrialist Sebastián Pinera. The fact that Concertación won the elections with only 53% in the second round, indicates the opposition counts with considerable support among voters.

In spite of the centre-left orientation, Concertación governments have promoted a liberal export-oriented economy. President Bachelet is likely to continue on the same track. The president took office announcing 36 policies to be implemented within the first 100 days of her administration. She has declared that fighting poverty and reducing income inequality are to be the highest priorities of her administration. About 18% of Chile’s population still live under the national poverty line, particularly in the southern provinces.
Civil society in Chile is well organized, particularly among the business community and human rights organizations. Trade unions, however, are considered to be less influential today than during the mobilisations against dictatorship in the 1980s. The participation of women in public affairs has increased in later years, particularly in the human rights agenda. Although two of the main presidential candidates in the last elections were women, political participation in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies is more modest (even below the regional average, which is 18%).
Issues/dynamics

Chilean politics are dominated by well defined political parties that often form electoral coalitions to participate in electoral processes. The Constitution of 1989 made the electoral system binominal, which makes it difficult for any party to establish majority in congress. According to some observers, this has encouraged the need for seeking consensus and political cooperation between parties, and also between government and opposition. However, changes in the electoral system have been demanded from many fronts, and it is likely to undergo reform in the current administration.

Human rights are still much present in the social and political agenda in Chile. Thirty years after the coup of General Pinochet, and the most brutal military dictatorship in Latin American history was initiated, the country is still coming to terms with its violent past. The thirty year anniversary of the coup in 2003 saw broad mobilization among human rights and victims organizations, making sure that the plight of the victims would not go into oblivion. The human rights movement in Chile is constituted by multiple organizations which have succeeded, step by step, in seeking justice for perpetrators of human rights violations – including General Pinochet himself. Legal processes against former military personnel have increased, and a comprehensive program of victim reparations has been established. While measures taken immediately after the transition to democracy were modest and cautious, in the long run the political will of Chilean governments to support the human rights agenda in issues of transitional justice is a good example for other countries in the region.
The polarizing effect of the former dictator in Chilean society has been reduced in the last few years, partly influenced by the disclosure of secret bank accounts belonging to Pinochet and his family. The main reason however, lays in the consolidation of democratic rule in the country, which has gone hand in hand with processes of reform to establish the subordination of armed forces to civilian rule, and to establish the rule of law. In spite of these positive developments, the situation is overshadowed by the marginalization and extreme poverty experienced by the Mapuche indigenous people in the southern regions. It is worth noting that Chile is one of the few countries in the region that has not ratified the ILO Convention 169. Local Mapuche leaders have been imprisoned for their “subversive” activity under the current “anti-terrorist” legislation. Military forces have also been used to control demonstrations against damn construction and eucalyptus plantations. The challenge for the new government will be on how to make democracy and economic development more inclusive, also for the indigenous population. The creation of Regional Agencies for Productive Development in each region of the country can be a step in this direction.
Natural resources

Chile is the most market friendly and prosperous country in Latin America when it comes to GDP per capita (Table 1). However, short of gas and oil, their current hydroelectric production is considerable, constituting 19% of national consumption today (Table 5). The rest is imported, and natural gas coming through Argentina probably represents about 29 % of primary energy consumption. This dependency makes the Chilean economy vulnerable for their historical rival’s changing moods. The sudden cut in supply as a result of the Kirchner doctrine of low fixed utility prices at home has been an expensive lesson for the Chileans. Even though South America is packed with natural gas, both accessible through pipelines and as LNG on ships, Chile is now seriously considering long term contracts for LNG supply from producers in the Middle East due to their perception of political instability in their home region.

Situated in the Andes mountain range, extraction of minerals represents an important sector for the Chilean economy. Today this sector represents about 8.5 % of GDP (mostly copper) and the size of the sector is about three times as high as in 1990, constituting 40 % of total exports. The increase is due to heavy investments by multi-national companies. A de facto tax brake was introduced; companies did not have to pay income tax before all investment costs were recovered in contrast to the depreciation of fixed capital system (which is normally applied). This incentive aimed to attract foreign investment to the country when the mineral prices were low in the 1990’s. It has been claimed that the Chilean state just received USD 20 mill in sales taxes out of a total sales of USD 4.4 billion in the sector. As prices have increased in later years, such low share seems even more unreasonable. The Lagos government tried to impose a 3 % sales tax revenue on the mining sector in 2004 with the special purpose of financing research; this has not been implemented yet. The state-owned Codelco mining company is still a major player in the sector, and there is a debate about whether privatisation is desirable or not. The state company contributes about USD 1 bill to the state budget annually, while taxes from private activity lag far beyond.
Fisheries too are an important part of the economy with 1.5 % of GDP. However, taxation is low even though a large proportion of the catch is taken by foreign concessionaries.
Trends

Chile represents an element of stability in the region. Without divisive issues to solve at the home front, Chile is well placed to play a neutralising and stabilising role in a region. This will be very useful, particularly as different countries become more entrenched in their positions regarding economic integration and international trade. This calmness however, may not apply in dealing with Peru and Bolivia over issues of territorial sovereignty.

Chile in the region. In spite of its economic stability and growth, Chilean governments have kept a relatively low profile in the regional political scene, while playing a more active role at the international level. Chile has been consistent in promoting “un regionalismo abierto”, open regional integration – that is, regional cooperation among open economies. Thus Chile is an associated member of Mercosur, and has a bilateral trade agreement with USA. The Chilean economy is not only export-based, but highly diversified and has also expanded through investment in neighbouring countries, particularly Peru. The possibility of Bolivia to export its gas resources through Chile is still an open issue, so for Chile, a good relationship to its northern neighbours is very important. Bolivian claims for access to the Pacific, the delimitation of sea borders with Peru, and the pending extradition of former President Fujimori to Peru have strained diplomatic relations in the past years. In the aftermath of Bolivian nationalization of energy resources, the Chilean position is to call for calmness and dialogue, in order to avoid a further deterioration of regional cooperation.
Beyond the South American region, Chile was successful in promoting its candidate for Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, who was elected last year. Previously, in 2004, Chilean Ambassador Juan Gabriel Valdés was appointed Secretary General of the United Nations Stabilisation Mission in Haiti. Chile also been the leading country in promoting the formulation and approval of the “Basic Principles and Guidelines on the Right to a Remedy and Reparation for Victims of Gross Violations of International Human Rights Law and Serious Violations of International Humanitarian Law”, which was approved by the UN General Assembly in December 2005.