”Analyse av den aktuelle politiske og sosio-økonomiske situasjonen i Latin Amerika”

1. Introduction

The political landscape in Latin America is undergoing a process of change. Through democratic processes representatives from labour unions, indigenous peoples and even former resistance movements have been elected into government in several Latin American countries. These are new and important signals from a region that is know for its entrenching social and economic inequality, and elitist power structures. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway wishes to reshape its development cooperation with Latin America in order to support these democratic developments.

On this background, a Working Group for Latin America was constituted in February 2006 in order to develop a set of recommendations to the Norwegian government about the future of development cooperation with Latin America. According to the mandate for the Working Group, their recommendations must be based on an analysis of the current situation in the region which, among other issues, provides:

1. 
   an understanding of what sectors of the population are represented by the new political regimes in Latin America represent, and what political trends this expresses.
   
2. 
   a description of popular movements and the role of women’s and indigenous peoples organisations; and
   
3. 
   an analysis of the strategic significance of energy-based resources (oil and natural gas) and the political-economic models for exploitation, production and distribution of energy.
   

The Working Group stands free to highlight other topics and issues that it considers relevant to understand the current political and socio-economic situation in Latin America. Work on the political and socio-economic analysis must be take place parallel and in direct relation with the activities conducted by the Working Group, i.e. seminar discussions. In this way, the Working Group will at the end of its mandate present two reports to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: A set of recommendations (Recommendations Report) and a background document (Analysis of the political and socio-economic situation in Latin America). The present report constitutes the background document for the recommendations proposed by the Working Group.

Structure of the report

The report starts with presentation of the methodological framework used to approach the political and socio-economic situation in Latin America (Section 2). This is followed by nine individual country analyses, which constitute the main section of the report (Section 3). Issues and debates are succinctly stated in order to provide a general overview of the current situation, the implication being that a number of issues of relevance for the individual reader might not have been included in this report. An overview of regional organizations is provided in Section 4. In the report's final section, we conclude with some reflections about common trends and relevant issues identified in the current Latin American context, following the same framework as in the county analyses. The analysis presented in this report is based on the review of various sources, such as international and national newspapers accessed mainly through the internet, country reports by national and international organizations, selected academic literature, and relevant academic debates from the LASA Congress 2006. The report has also benefited from inputs by individual members of the Working Group with expert knowledge in particular countries. To make the text more accessible, we have kept the use of footnotes and references to a minimum; a complete list of references and sources is presented at the end of the report.

2. How to approach the current situation in Latin America? A methodological framework

This analysis of the political and socio-economic situation of Latin America is guided by the issues raised during the seminars of the Working Group for Latin America, and bears some correspondence with the focus and structure of its “twin” Recommendations Report. In this section, we present the methodological framework used in this report, which can be summarized as a focus on actors, resources, issues & dynamics, and trends. We discuss each of these elements in turn.

Actors. A focus on actors allows the identification of organised, formal and informal subjects, groups and/or networks that might bear influence in the socio-political and economic development of a given country. This operational definition implies the agency – active or latent – of social, political and economic actors in the public scene. In this manner, it is possible to talk about public institutions, social movements, political parties, or private sector enterprises as actors with the capacity to engage into a process of contestation and social change.
For the purpose of this report, we will focus our attention on two distinct types of actors: state-actors, that is, public institutions and representatives of the state; and non-state actors, that is, civil society organizations and the private sector. It is worth noting that this distinction does not presuppose a relationship of conflict or opposition between state and non-state actors. The nature of the relationship between actors is an empirical question which is to be asserted upon closer analysis, and not taken for granted a priori. Furthermore, we cannot expect the same kind of actors to have the same influence or even presence in all countries of the region. The particular context and the current political situation will determine the political actors to be emphasized in our analysis. To the extent possible, we will focus our discussion on:

• 
  Current governments and selected public institutions, particularly those whose mandate is to receive and mediate demands from, and establish contact/engage into dialogue with individual citizens and civil society organisations.
  
• 
  Social movements and political parties; that is, organised groups which represent different sectors of civil society. This maybe supportive or not of current governments.
  

While recognizing that the Catholic Church constitutes an integral part of Latin American societies, both in terms of belief and organization (parishes and networks), the focus in this analysis will be on secular actors. The exception to this rule will be Brazil, where the Church has also played an important political role.

Natural resources. The extraction of natural resources constitutes an important part of the national economies of Latin American countries. In this report we will focus on oil, gas and minerals, which are most relevant for governmental taxation. Hydroelectricity, fisheries and forestry will be dealt with only in the absence of energy-related resources. We will approach resource management (extraction and distribution of incomes) both in general terms and by identifying the main actors in each sector. Our intention is to assess the overall significance of these sectors in the national economy, i.e. their share in total production (Gross Domestic Product - GDP) and labour use, in order to assess how the activity affects the daily lives of local populations. However, national accounts at a sufficiently detailed level turned out to be difficult to obtain and will hence in some cases rely on more indirect (and not necessarily comparable) sources of information.
There are normally considerable rents in the natural resource sector beyond pure extraction costs. Our analysis of natural resources aims to asses the share which accrues to the public through taxation. We will hence report the prevailing rules and laws of taxation for the main resource sectors of each country when such were available, and further estimate the overall figures.
Finally, how are the resource rents actually being used to achieve political, social and economic goals in each country, both internally and internationally? Such monetary flows are difficult to trace. Political and economic pressures are hard to identify in an explicit manner. We must hence rely on more ad-hoc sources and non-statistical material to show how natural resource extraction influences both national and international policies and economies.
Issues & Dynamics. A focus on issues will allow us to approach the various ways in which actors interact with each other with regards to core contested issues. We aim to answer questions such as: What are the issues at stake? What are the terms of engagement? What are the mechanisms in place for interaction between actors? In this report, we consider issues and the dynamics between actors to be fully intertwined, and have chosen to present them under the heading of "Issues & Dynamics". It is worth noting that the dynamics of social and political interaction are often closely interrelated with issues related to the production and (re)distribution of national resources. In fact, many of the most confrontational dynamics between social and political actors in Latin America are about the management of natural resources and the incomes they produce. However, it is important to remember that struggle and contestation are not limited to natural resources, but can also involve political power, democratic participation, or rights-based agendas. Finally, the dynamic character of interaction and relevance of issues at hand might go beyond national territorial borders, adding a regional dimension that will be explored accordingly. A comprehensive understanding of socio-political processes is therefore needed.
Trends. Given the actors and the dynamics present in the political and socio-economic stage, what trends can be observed in individual countries, and in the region as a whole? In approaching these trends, we need to place the current situation in context, taking into account broader processes of social change such as the return to democracy and the expansion of market liberalism. The identification of trends, either positive or negative, will help ascertain the needs for the reinforcement or change of direction of current national policies, as well as those of international development cooperation.