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seem to have the intention or plans of making any political
and strategic changes anytime soon.
Since it declared independence, Azerbaijan has
considered Armenia as the biggest security threat to its
planning and activities for security and defense as well as in
its “National Security Strategy Concept”. It is normal and
necessary. In fact, Armenia has been in possession of
Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region. The land which corresponds
to one fifth of Azerbaijan’s total surface area has been
invaded by ruling out international law and practices. This
actual state has caused damage to Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity and ability to become a sovereign nation. In fact,
the nation does not have total sovereignty over all its
territory. This situation also put an end to regional and
international peace. It is not possible to bring peace to both
countries as well as the region unless Karabakh dispute is
ended. Karabakh problem will continue create tensions for
the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as well as
Azerbaijan-Russia and Turkey-Armenia. Karabakh problem
helped to show who is for and against Azerbaijan right after
its independence. On the other hand, the elite created by
Soviet regime admired Russia while conservative citizens
admired Iran, which made the country question their
attachment to these countries. In fact, both Russia and Iran
has openly and undeniably supported Armenia. Iran does not
want a solution and wants Azerbaijan to be dealing with the
issue while it expects not to waste time on Azerbaijani Turks
from South Azerbaijan in Iran. Furthermore, in case
Azerbaijan-Armenia
problem is solved, Armenia’s
dependence on Iran will lose effect and it will be in a more
active coordination with Turkey and the West. However,
both countries officially declared neutrality in Karabakh
problem. Three countries’ position
in the region, Russia, Iran
and Turkey, plays a vital role for Azerbaijan’s security and
defense. In fact, response from these three would change
balance of power in the region. Particularly their position
matters for Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and solution to the
Karabakh problem. Georgia, a South Caucasian country and
a neighbor of Azerbaijan has been facing similar problems
as well. Russia’s interference and support have disrupted
territorial integrity and sovereignty of the two countries.
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may perform well in the battlefield, countries may lose wars
if they fail to utilize diplomacy successfully. The second
threat is the risk of introducing Islamic radicalism in
Azerbaijan by other countries, which would pose a threat to
today’s modern government. Like any other modern Muslim
nation, Azerbaijan faces the threat of backward radical
Islamists. The country has not witnessed any Islamist threat
in the last two centuries including the period of the Tsardom
and socialism. Although it has a history of secularism free
from radicalism, Azerbaijan has been facing the threat of
Islamic radicalism in the last 25 years since it gained
independence. Despite the fact that Azerbaijani state, people
and the elite have traditionally stood away from radicalism,
Islamism which is supported by external forces has
penetrated into the country in the post-Cold War atmosphere
of freedom. It should be noted that this is largely to due to
Iran and non-governmental organizations.
As a post-Soviet country, Azerbaijan has resisted
Russian Federation’s influence since its independence in
1991 like any other Soviet country. It has faced similar
threats like Georgia, Ukraine and Moldovia has gone
through. Former Soviet states such as Hungary, Poland,
Romania and Bulgaria have freed themselves from Russian
influence and oppression thanks to their membership in
NATO and the EU. Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia broke
up. Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldovia and Ukraine, former
Soviet states suffering from Russian dominance found
GUAM in 10
th
October 1997 pursuant to cooperation on and
protection of values of democracy, economic prosperity,
territorial integrity and rule of law. The four founding
members of this international organization were former
Soviet states and had issues with Russian Federation.
Although these four countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia,
Moldovia and Ukraine) did not have a deterrent force, their
alliance has undoubtedly delivered a message. Russia poses
a serious threat for sovereignty of former Soviet states and
for peace in former Soviet geography. Russian Federation
prefers to keep these countries under its influence by
threatening them through several methods
and excuses rather
than reasoning with them through encouraging, appealing
and modern methods. Russia founded “Collective Security
Treaty
Organization” with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan,