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countries. The countries in the region show reaction to
foreign interference and actions against regimes. Among
other reasons, these concerns and reactions have led to the
foundation of SCO as well. Turkey is obliged to consider
these sensitivities in carrying out its foreign policy.
Turkey is also obliged to keep this fact in mind:
Russia aims to have domination over land and sea in
Eurasia. It strives for influencing the former Soviet
geography. Since the Putin administration took over in 2000,
it has been steadily increasing its dominance in the region
starting from immediate vicinities. The world’s rising power
China attaches vital importance to cheap energy supply
considering its dependence on foreign energy resources. It
has been looking for new markets. A significant regional
power that is expected to become a member of SCO after
India and Pakistan, Iran has been following a policy that
looks out for sensitivities of Russia and China in Eurasia.
Russia is content with Iran’s cooperation with SCO.
Russian President Putin’s statement that “there is no
obstacles for Iran to join SCO as full member” in the summit
held in Uzbekistan capital Tashkent in 2016 is a clear
manifestation of that position. A program was launched in
the same summit in order to create an economic corridor
between China, Russia and Mongolia. The three countries
agreed on cooperation in border regions and on transport
network. While China laid out its expectations for Silk Road
Economic Belt which is also known as “One Belt One
Road”, Russia expressed its aims for Trans-Eurasia corridor.
Despite all these developments, Turkey has not included
One Belt One Road in its agenda. Yet it is a key countries in
the route that the project is anticipated to cover. The project
offers great opportunities for Turkey in order to reach out to
the Turkic world, develop its relations with its neighbors,
open to new markets and strengthening ties with Eurasian
countries.
Conclusion
Turkey lacks a policy toward SCO and Eurasia alike.
It has not developed one for the countries in the region
either. There is not a a short-mid-long term strategy that fits
its state capacity in order to be a regional actor. In the
meantime, steps that it has been taking in order to be
influential in a large geography from the Middle East to
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Latin America and to raise awareness and make itself visible
to the rest of world is not producing the expected results due
to lack of a list of priorities and goals. However, there are
promising developments in recent years. For instance,
Russia showed in the war against Georgia in 2008 that it
could engage in armed conflict in its immediate vicinities
when necessary. While the dispute with Ukraine continued
in 2014, it invaded Crimea. It has been providing support to
the Assad regime in Syria with its air forces since 2015 as it
has been endorsing it from the very beginning.
In response to Russia’s moves, the USA tries to
encircle Russia from the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the
Eastern Europe and the Balkans. It has been utilizing NATO
for that purpose, which causes trouble especially for Turkey.
The USA pushes for a loose interpretation of the Montreaux
Convention, carries out military exercises in the Black Sea
and patrols the Aegean Sea on the grounds that it has been
fighting “illegal immigration”. Russia showed a strong
reaction to the U.S. deployment of 4 battalions to Poland and
3 Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Turkey is in a
tight situation between the USA and Russia. While it was
positioned against Russia in Ukraine and Crimea in the
beginning, it has taken a step back quite swiftly considering
its dependency on Russia for gas (55%) and disputes with
the West. Despite conflicting policies in Syria, what came
after the taking down of the military jet in 2015 is a
manifestation of Turkey’s difficult position.
Turkey is obliged to review its approach toward
international alliances. It is important to know that the
lifespan of these alliances are related to the geography,
periodical developments, balances of power, regional and
global contexts, structure of member states, their priorities
and perceptions of threat. For instance, it is necessary to
analyze why England agreed to exit the EU after the
referendum in 2016 (with participation of 72 percent and 52
percent no votes). England did not adopt Euro as currency
despite being a member of the EU and continued to use
Pound. Furthermore, England is the biggest ally of China in
Europe. China regards London as a base in Europe and
England was the first western country to recognize China as
a state. Chinese currency RMB is dealt the most in the world
in London after Hong Kong. England is the first country in
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Europe that launched RMB to the market. Despite objection
by the USA, it is one of the first countries to become a
member of the Asian Development Bank. Turkey is obliged
to learn lessons from these relations.
Contrary to Turkey, it can be said that Greece and
Iran use their geopolitical positions to their advantage.
Turkey also needs to examine the reasons behind
Karabakh’s membership to NATO as well as Bosnia and
Herzegovina’s potential candidacy to EU membership.
Despite the fact that half of its exports is to the EU, 40
percent of its imports are from the EU, 70 percent of foreign
investments are from the EU and consultations have been
continuing since Ankara (ECAA) Agreement of 1963,
Turkey’s membership is not even on the agenda.
At a time when the USA could not prevent China’s
rise, rapprochement between Russia and China, growing
influence of Russia and Iran in the Middle East and it signed
an agreement with Iran on its nuclear activities, Turkey
cannot make use of its geopolitical position.
In order to get rid of this predicament, Turkey is
primarily and especially obliged to act on its own, not on
behalf of others. It is inadmissible to be referred to and
perceived as the voice of American policies in the Middle
East and Eurasia. As a NATO member, Turkey will not be
admitted to SCO membership. It is not possible to be a
member of both organizations simultaneously. Furthermore,
NATO and Russia have defined each other as primary
threats. However, due to its geopolitical location, strategic
importance, its trade relations, historical and cultural ties and
the fact that the world’s political and economic weight is
shifting from the Atlantic to the Eurasia makes Turkey
obliged to maintain strong ties with Eurasia and the SCO
countries. It is necessary to comprehend this fact for
political, economic and diplomatic reasons as well as
objective conditions and national interests.
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