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151 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Belarus in Tashkent on 7 th October 2002. Azerbaijan did not join this organization in spite of pressure from Russia. Although Russia pushed for it, member states did not agree to transform it into a military organization. It continues to operate as an ineffective and unsuccessful organization. Although the organization protects territorial integrity of its members, it is possible to say that the organization will build influence due to Russia’s attitude. As in the case of NATO and Warsaw Pact, a common enemy or a common threat is necessary for a collective security organization. It is not easy for Russia to find a common enemy or threat for this security organization and its members. These members interpret interests and threats differently and they have sympathy for the western world. That’s why Russia will have difficulty in persuading and motivating its allies. Azerbaijan did not join the organization because it believed that Russia had a role in losing its territorial integrity. The problem would have been solved long time ago if Armenia had been taking decisions independently from Russia. Armenia’s relations with Turkey were also damaged due to the Karabakh issue and the door opening to the West is shut for Armenia. Russia’s support for Armenia is coming at a huge cost in terms of economic, military, political and diplomatic developments. Drop in oil prices, conflicts in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria have created huge burdens on Russian economy. Similarly, despite the fact that it is a poor country, Armenia employs soldiers and purchases arms more than it can afford. In return for the support that it extends, Russia exploits Armenia’s scarce resources. Likewise, Azerbaijan allocates a higher budget into defense and this results in less resources for national development and welfare. Whichever way you look at it, it is a loss for everyone. One of the great powers in the region, Iran’s approach is both interesting and too difficult to bring a solution to the problem. The fact that Iran and Azerbaijan are both Muslim countries and there is about 40 million Azerbaijani Turks in Iran would make one think that Iran would support Azerbaijan socially and politically. The reality is in fact surprising because it supports Armenia and turns a blind eye to Russian domination of the area. Although we could explain this approach by calling it 152 “realpolitik” this situation does not help Iran at all. By adopting this policy, Iran takes a stance against two neighboring countries, Turkey and Azerbaijan and does not seem to back down. In other words, it does not abstain from it. It is not apprehended by discontent and sanctions from these two countries. In fact, Iran attaches greater importance to Armenia than the two neighboring countries. This attitude is shared by Persian people and the educated as well as the government itself. For example, Professor Bahram Emir Ahmediyandan from Tehran University wrote an article for a popular news site “Habaronline” and stated that “A win for Armenians in the Azerbaijan-Armenian conflict means a win for Iran. Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan extends the lifespan of the problem.” Writing such an article that would not be appreciated by almost one half of the population, he demonstrates that Persian ethnic influence is very strong in the country. The author also discusses Iran-Armenian relations in depth and explains how content the state of Armenia is by Iran’s support and how important it is for them to receive such assistance: “Without Iran’s support, there would not be a state of Armenia.” The author here takes a pro-Armenia stance and does not seem to be refraining from Iranian citizens of Turkish descent or reaction from Turkey and Azerbaijan. As a matter of fact, Armenia sustained its relations with Iran in spite of the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and warnings from the western countries. The western world however, turned a blind eye to Armenia’s decision and did not impose any sanctions. The energy agreement between Iran and Armenia signed in 2007 became one of the most prominent agreement ever signed and implemented between the two countries. According to this agreement, a pipe line would be established between the two countries and Iran would provide gas and as Armenia does not have financial resources, it would pay back to Iran with electricity generated from the gas. In return for one cubic meter of gas, it would provide three kilowatt of electricity. The facility that can generate electricity from gas was established near Iranian border in Armenia by Iranian engineers in 2008. As it can be derived from this agreement, Iran supports Armenia. Although political relations between the two countries are on solid grounds, economic relations 153 are not at the desired level. As mentioned above, although the two economies complement each other on several areas, there are significant problems in terms of technology and finance. Total trade volume of the two countries in 2015 is 300 million dollars, which is quite low. Although bilateral visits between Iran and Armenia are not very often, they took place occasionally in order to show the significance of the relations. The most recent high-level visit was paid by Eshaq Jahangiri, First Vice President of Iran (equal to Prime Minister) in 14 th -16 th October 2015. Jahangiri visited Armenia with a crowded delegation and signed several political, economic and cultural agreements. He held meetings with Hovik Abrahamyan and President Serzh Sargsyan. A few significant deals made that formed the basis for trade and economic partnership included banking, agriculture and information and communication technologies. It was aimed and planned that Iranian trade centers would be opened in Armenia and Iranian products would be sold in former Soviet countries through these centers over Armenia, a member of Eurasian Economic Union. Another deal was reached on construction of a railway line, which is not implemented yet but if it is, it will be a major acquisition for both countries. The railway would not only connect the two countries but also allow Armenia, a country with no borders at sea, to reach the Persian Gulf. The railway project the construction of which began in 2013 is being carried out by Russian company FZA. Armenian strategist and Iran specialist Vardan Vestaniyan has pointed out that Armenia could finally break away from Turkish and Azerbaijan’s blockade and gain independence thanks to projects implemented in cooperation with Iran. Despite these agreements and the cooperation between the two countries, a significant progress has not been made since 1992, the year official relations started. Despite the fact that two countries are willing to proceed, their means and resources would not allow it. One of the first countries that recognized Armenia’s sovereignty in 1992, Iran’s expectations from Armenia are mostly of political nature. Armenia, on the other hand, has economic expectations from Iran. The first official meeting between presidents of the two countries was held in 8 th -10 th September 2014 between Iranian President Mohammed Khatami and Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and 154 since then every one of the elected Presidents of the two countries held meetings. It demonstrates the importance the two countries attach to one another. Iran indirectly recognizes the so-called Armenian genocide that is claimed to have taken place in 1915 during the Ottoman era. It does not recognize it directly due to its citizens of Turkish descent and relations with Turkey, so it acts in a way to please Armenia. For example, Vice President Hamid Baghei recognized the so-called genocide in a statement: “A hundred years ago, genocide was carried out against Armenians during the Ottoman era. There is not an Ottoman state anymore but Armenians still ask for apology and compensation from Turkey.” With such a statement, he indirectly recognized the so-called genocide. The protest from Turkish government was responded by Iran with a statement that it was his personal opinion, not an official statement and a crisis between the two countries was averted but this clear statement is important as it reveals true intentions of Iran. Iran’s fondness of Armenia despite the risk of facing the opposition of Turkey and Azerbaijan is inconceivable. Iran has been adopting this policy since 1992 but not it has not generated any favorable outcome. Iran has alienated its citizens of Turkish descent as well as taking on Turkey and Azerbaijan, two neighboring countries. It may be trying to minimize the effects of isolation by utilizing Armenia’s positive image in the eyes of the western countries, which has failed so far. In fact, Iran has not been able to interpret and take advantage of Armenia’s power and credibility by the West. Colloquially, throwing a stone is not worth the frog that is scared by it. Iran’s support for Armenia in Karabakh issue have not sparked an upheaval among Turks in the country but they don’t seem to be content with the policy or make sense of it. Likewise Turkey questions Iran’s relations with Armenia and has its doubts. As Greece also joins these relations, Iran’s intentions against Turkey and Azerbaijan are not friendly. Iran does not seek economic, cultural and peaceful goals in its relations with these countries. Iran seems to unite with Armenia and Greece against Turkey and Azerbaijan, countries that they regard as common enemies. Armenia and Greece’s positions are understandable but as an Islamic country with 40 million 155 citizens of Turkish descent, Iran’s policy is debatable and needs explaining. These reckless and fearless policies of Iran against Turkey and Azerbaijan do not originate from the might and skill of Iranian state but from Turkey and Azerbaijan’s unskillfulness and inability to defend their cause. For example, if 40 million Persians lived in Turkey or Azerbaijan, Iran would take a great advantage of it. After all, everyone is mastered at their own game. The only country that Azerbaijan does not have problems in security, foreign relations, economy and cultural relations is Turkey. The main reason behind this is that people of the two countries are of the same descent. Since 1991, the year Azerbaijan gained its independence, relations between the two countries have been outstanding. This is particularly important when one considers relations between Arab countries and relations between North and South Korea. Turkey has supported Azerbaijan in military organization, reaching NATO standards as well as tactical, equipment and military capacity development. It sided with Azerbaijan in every matter including the Karabakh problem. Similarly, Azerbaijan sided with Turkey in every matter. In addition to being sister countries, the two countries have common interests. Armenia has been having problems with both Turkey and Azerbaijan historically including land disputes and psychology of its people. Both countries have to deal with issues with Russia, EU and Iran before Armenia. AKP government has sought ways to solve problems with Armenia. Upon support and pressure by western countries, USA particularly, Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Armenian Foreign Affairs Minister Eduard Nalbandyan met in Zurich on 10 th October 2009 with participation of US Secretary of State and other European ministers and signed an agreement in a spectacular ceremony. The agreement was responded with doubt and criticized by Turkish public. Azerbaijan expressed its concerns. Armenian public were not content either. Russia opposed the agreement because if the problem is solved, Armenia would more likely make a move towards the West. That’s why both countries took a step back and the Zurich agreement would not be put into practice. Thus an agreement that Azerbaijan was not content with was gone. What troubled Azerbaijan and Turkish public was that 156 Turkey was sealing the deal without solving the Karabakh issue. In fact, Turkey has supported Azerbaijan in that matter since 1992. A policy of not reconciling without bringing a solution to this problem has been adopted. That’s why Zurich agreement, which ignored the problem, was criticized right from the start. The biggest security threat for Azerbaijan today is securing territorial integrity that was threatened due to Karabakh. Azerbaijan government allocated 18.3% of its annual budget to defense. It is a record and quite high compared to other countries’ defense budgets. Azerbaijan’s total budget for 2016 is 16.264 billion manat. A 1,837 billion manat is allocated to defense and it corresponds to 1,754 billion dollars. It’s almost sixty times higher than Armenia’s defense budget. However, it must be noted that Armenia is backed by the Russian army. As is known, Russia has two military bases in Armenia, one located in Gyumri and another at the airport in capital Yerevan. Russia has been assisting Armenia through military and economic aid while it keeps military and defense cooperation with Azerbaijan at minimum level. Russia established a base in Qabala in 1985 that was mostly used as a recreational facility. Around 1,400 soldiers were based there. Russia took control of the base for a short period of time after the Soviet Union. In 1996, President Heydar Aliyev released a decree and declared that Azerbaijan had taken possession of the base. In 2002, two countries signed an agreement and Qabala military base was rented to Russia for ten years. In 2012, two sides discussed to extend the lease but there was controversy as Azerbaijan asked for a raise. Relations between the two have not been strong due to Russia’s support for Armenia. Russia’s stance in Karabakh issue and negative attitude towards Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity have caused a lot of concern on the side of Azerbaijan. Taking into account this situation and knowing that it would leave Qabala sooner or later, Russia informed Azerbaijan government about its withdrawal from Qabala on 23 rd January 2013 with an official statement. Thus Russia has abandoned its only military facility in Azerbaijan. This is indeed a historic moment. In fact, it ended the presence of Russian military in Azerbaijan that had existed since 1828. This is a vital 157 development for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yüklə 1,96 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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