23
tivities of the new paradigm between nations. If not, the globalised economy we will risk – even
more than in the Fordist paradigm – that a large number of nations specialise in being poor and
ignorant in the international division of labour.
Bücher’s Stages of Development of Economics and Geography
Type of economy
Mechanisms of income distribution
I. Household Economy
Family: According to need
‘social relations’ not ‘markets’.
II. Town/regional Economy
Family + labour mobility in small area
+ church.
III. National Economy
All of the above + distributing paradigm-
carrying activity (= "the industrial system")
to all nations + State (taxation, schooling, health,
‘welfare state’)
IV. Global Economy
None of the above (except intra-EU) but
‘development aid’
7. Are Stages ‘Obligatory Passage Points’ – or are Short-cuts Possible?
As already discussed, stage theories do not pretend to present iron laws. Bücher clearly describes
their passage as ‘what is normal’ – they are, says Oppenheimer, ‘ideal types’ in the Weberian
sense. Stage theories do not represent the Whig conception of history that everything invariably
improves. In my view they tend to conform to
[213] Carlota Perez view that all stages or modes
of production both socially and economically present a wide range of options according to what
values society promotes.
There are, however, several aspects of stage theories that suggest that their sequence is man-
datory, although retrogression – both self-induced and induced from the outside – is clearly pos-
sible. This is what Carlota Perez sees as a paradigm shift not only opening new windows of op-
portunity, but also opening back doors to retrogression. The whole idea of the Renaissance was
to catch up to a previous stage which had been lost after what was – at the time – clearly per-
ceived as a long period of retrogression.
All authors tie the stages to a cumulativeness of human knowledge that carries with it an in-
creasing division of labour. Both Bücher and other authors are very conscious about the role of
an increasing division of labour in the historical stages. As already mentioned, Oppen-heimer
calls the degrees of division of labour The Stages of Differentiation, which he ties to the geo-
graphical dimension (Bücher’s stages) in The Stages of Integration.
Clearly, the duration of paradigms and stages can be drastically cut in time. Korea’s ‘leap-
24
frogging’ over a brief period of 40 years is perhaps the most remarkable example of how an
industrial revolution may be compressed in time. In Korea having eliminated a feudal
landholding pattern seems to have been a prerequisite for this leapfrogging. The elimination of
most of the feudal land holding structure in Bolivia after 1952 and in Peru after 1968 proves,
however, that this is only one of many necessary conditions for ‘take-off.’
The following two aspects would – in our view – point to stages being what historians of
technology call ‘mandatory passage points’ -points which the evolution seemingly have to go
through:
1.
The cumulative nature of human knowledge. This cumulative aspect is evident when it
comes to education; most people start in grade one and follow every grade up through uni-
versity, although short-cuts – skipping one grade – is sometimes possible, but still the excep-
tion rather than the rule. In the same manner there seems to be a natural sequence of techno-
logical change. Motorised land transport (cars) is, for example, likely to precede motorised
air
[214] transport just like an age based on nature’s materials, like the stone age, is likely to
precede an age dominated by a material produced by Man, like the iron age. However, I
would not like to push the ‘naturalness’ of any sequence too far, I believe – in he spirit of
Paul David’s Economics of QWERTY – that there are a wide range of possible trajectories,
and that many end up not being optimal. This, however, does not subtract from a degree of
cumulativeness: the Stone Age is not likely to follow an age of aluminium.
Human knowledge may be seen – as Leibniz saw it – as a conscious climbing in a hierarchy
of monads towards ever-higher levels of knowledge. In the Renaissance world view, since
Man was created in the image of an incredibly creative God, it was his pleasurable duty to
climb the hierarchy of monads towards ever higher levels of knowledge. Leibniz’ monadol-
ogy in this sense points to the cumulative aspect of the growth of human know-ledge.
2. There are clearly connections between the stages of economic evolution and Man’s hierar-
chy of needs. The German stage theorists make it very clear that an agricultural surplus was
an absolute ‘mandatory passage point’ for human evolution to pass on to a further stage. The
agricultural revolution was the first one, providing Man with food, his most basic need. Next
came the industrial revolution, where production of textiles and clothing carried a succes-
sion of techno-economic paradigms – from the early industrialisation of Venice in the 14th
Century all the way through 19th Century Manchester. A hierarchy of human needs must,
through the demand mechanism, to some extent determine the sequence of technological
change: it is not feasible to think of a paradigm carried by sophisticated consumer services if
people have not covered their basic needs for food, shelter and clothing.
There is then, something organic in the process of evolutionary stages, whatever the criteria for
the stages may be. This does, in our view, apply also to Perez/Freeman’s techno-economic para-
digms. In our view there are particular reasons to believe that Fordism is a mandatory passage
point in order to create a post-Fordist society
[215] with an equitable income distribution. There
seem to be two basic reasons for this:
1)
In our view the Fordist paradigm was, and may remain, unique in its potential for large-scale
income distribution within labour markets. The large scale of operations and the political
power of a large number of workers allowed a rapid increase in the price of labour compared
to the price of capital. This speeded up mechanisation, which – in a virtuous circle – again in-
creased the price of labour, and so on. This is what we have referred to as collusive distribu-