“Maliyyə inkluzivliyi: nə? necə? Azərbaycan iqtisadiyyatı timsalında.”
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Chart 7. Credit registry coverage and NPLs to gross loans 54 in Azerbaijan. Let us define the link between the credit registry in the Azerbaijani economy and % of NPLs in the economy on the relevant indicators: r= ??????(∑ ????????????)−(∑ ??????)(∑ ??????) √[?????? ∑ ?????? 2 − (∑ ??????) 2 ]√[?????? ∑ ?????? 2 − (∑ ??????) 2 ] .................................................................. (1) Here,
r – correlation;
x – credit registry coverage;
y – non-performing loans;
n – number of periods (here – 5 years). Based upon the indicators from Chart 7 we calculated that r=-0.6. It gives ground to articulate that expansion of the credit registry coverage causes drops in the share of NPLs in the economy. Similar estimations are possible on the countries that have credit bureaus, rather than credit registries in their economies. Let us exemplify the Kazakhstan and Georgian economies:
54 Source: the Doing Business report and the World Bank 7 15.6
17.7 23 28.7 6 5.68
4.49 4.38
5.25 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
Credit registry coverage, % of adults Bank NPLs to gross loans, % [36]
Chart 8. Credit bureau coverage and NPLs to gross loans in Kazakhstan 55 .
Georgia 56 . Estimations on the Kazakhstan and Georgian economies (Charts 8 and 9) by means of equation (1) revealed that relevant correlation was r=-0.9 (absolute negative correlation), i.e. the wider credit bureau coverage, the less is the share of NPLs in the economy. To note, relevant correlation is not always negative since the spectrum of services by credit bureaus and data suppliers vary across countries. For instance, in estimations on the Russian Federation r=0.5, which means that
55 Source: the Doing Business report and the World Bank 56 Source: the Doing Business report and the World Bank 29.9 37.6
39.3 45.6
51.7 20.7
19.4 19.5
12.4 8.0
2011 2012
2013 2014
2015 Credit bureau coverage, % of adults Bank NPLs to gross loans,% 16.4
29.6 35.5
46.1 56.8
4.5 3.7
3.0 3.0
2.7 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
Credit bureau coverage, % of adults Bank NPLs to gross loans,% [37]
availability of credit bureaus contradicts to the theses about their benefits to the economy. We consider that the reason why this indicator is positive in particular countries needs to be investigated. The credit reporting system in Azerbaijan has witnessed considerable reforms for development over the past period. The Law on Credit Bureaus took effect on 7 December 2016, determining the normative – legal frame for credit bureaus in the country. One thing that calls for special attention in the Law is the provision on one-off and unchargeable transfer of the data currently available in the credit registry to the first licensed credit bureau. We consider that this fact will be favorable for the investors interested in formation of a credit bureau infrastructure in the country. Hence, data – crucial raw material for effective credit reporting will be obtained without any hindrances and excess cost allowing any startup company to instantly ‘dive’ to the market and operate actively. Moreover, our understanding is that credit bureau operators should focus on leasing. Unfortunately, no any official statistics is available on leasing activities in Azerbaijan. However, independent experts estimated that the size of leasing deals across the country amounted to AZN 200 million in 2014 (0.5% of GDP for the same period). To compare, the indicator in question ranges between 2 – 6% in developed countries 57 . Evidence from development of payment systems
Ongoing development of payment systems in Azerbaijan has always been on the agenda as a priority issue. The government took a number of significant relevant institutional actions, adopted state programs, and outlined future targets of payment systems in nationwide strategic development targets (the ‘Azerbaijan 2020: The Vision of the Future’ concept, Strategic Roadmap on Development of Financial Services in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Strategic Roadmap on Development of Telecommunication and Information Technologies in the Republic of Azerbaijan). Moreover, the key challenge for the relevant area is the
57 Source: Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Yüklə 1,31 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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