Türk Dünyası Gənc Tədqiqatçılar dərnəyinin Araşdırmaları
№1(1) 2017
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Caucasian area in support of its global geo-strategy.
The recent involvement of the United States might upset the
precarious power balance in these regions, which has evolved after
the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This is especially true now
that Iran and Russia, the greatest powers in the region, feel
threatened. Russia regards the South Caucasus as its traditional
backyard of influence and counters increasing involvement in the
area by the West. The United States has chosen Azerbaijan as its
most important ally in the Caspian basin and has developed a
program of intense military cooperation. Russian military analysts
argue that the situation is reminiscent to the U.S. Georgian Train and
Equip Program, which since its start in 2002 has provided Georgia
with a capable, well-trained and equipped army. Russian analysts
fear that this soon will be the case with Azerbaijan as well, thus
depriving Russia of all its means of influencing Azerbaijan.
U.S. military cooperation in the South Caucasus and the
Caspian seems to evolve smoothly (6). Although the United States
gives the impression of being reluctant to make its military presence
and activities public, it is clear that it is effectively defending its
interests in the region, including its energy security. In addition to
U.S. military support, Azerbaijan's increasing defense budget will
also contribute to strengthening its military power. The question
remains whether the United States will be able to convince other
states,
such as Kazakhstan, to join this military cooperation.
Russia has shown it is seriously interested in preserving its
regional authority with its Caspian Flotilla. Yet with a growing U.S.
presence, it will need to form alliances. A Russian‐led CASFOR
maritime force, including other littoral states in addition to Iran, still
seems far in the future. A cause of potential conflict is the unclear
legal status of the Caspian. So far, the littoral states have not reached
an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea. Near armed clashes have
already occurred between Azerbaijan and Iran over disputed oil
fields. Tensions are likely to continue as long as the legal situation of
the Caspian Sea remains in dispute. Because of the geo‐strategic and