x
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications
List of Tables
Table 1. Total Indium Reserves ................................................................................................................. 7
Table 2. Global Estimates of Mined Indium From Zinc Ores, 2009 and 2013 (tonnes) ...................... 10
Table 3. Summary Estimate of Indium Content of Various Mined Ores .............................................. 10
Table 4. List of Prospective Buyers for Indium-Bearing Zinc Concentrates ...................................... 12
Table 5. Estimate of Primary Indium Refinery Production (tonnes, 2009 to 2013) ............................. 14
Table 6. China’s Indium Export Quotas, 2010 and 2011 (tonnes) ........................................................ 17
Table 7. Indium Refining Terms for Indium Sponge Revenue Calculations Used in NI 43-101 Report
for Mount Pleasant Property ............................................................................................................. 21
Table 8. Estimates of Potential Indium Mined Along With Main Product Ores .................................. 23
Table 9. Overall Utilization of Indium in a Hypothetical ITO Sputtering Application With Closed
Loop Recycling of Manufacturing Waste ......................................................................................... 27
Table 10. Indium Recycling Capacity of Known Producers (2013) ...................................................... 29
Table 11. Total Indium Production (2013) ............................................................................................... 32
Table 12. Medium-Term Estimates of Indium Primary Refinery Production ....................................... 35
Table 13. Summary of Indium Production From New Mine Production .............................................. 36
Table 14. Operational and Production Summary of Malku Khota Silver-Indium Project .................. 38
Table 15. Potential Indium-Bearing Mineral Resource at Pinguino ..................................................... 39
Table 16. Potentially Recovered Metal and Revenue Contribution of Sulfide Ores (and Associated
Oxides) at Pinguino ............................................................................................................................ 39
Table 17. South Crofty “Potential” Mineral Resource ........................................................................... 42
Table 18. Potential Expansion of Secondary Supply From Manufacturing Waste............................. 48
Table 19. Total Indium Production (2011, 2016, and 2031) ................................................................... 49
Table 20. Long-Term Range of Potential Indium Prices ($, 2011) ........................................................ 53
Table 21. Estimated Zinc and Indium Reserves ..................................................................................... 61
Table 22. Global Estimates of Zinc Mine Production From 2007 to 2011 ............................................ 62
Table 23. Global Estimates of Copper Mine Production and Reserves From 2007 to 2011 .............. 63
Table 24. Global Estimates of Tin Mine Production and Reserves From 2007 to 2011 ..................... 64
Table 25. Overall Recovery Efficiency of Indium Use in a Hypothetical ITO Sputtering Application
With Closed Loop Recycling of Manufacturing Waste Where Total Measured Indium Recycled
Is ~608.5 Tonnes ................................................................................................................................. 65
Table 26. Mount Pleasant Production and Product Revenue Summary for Production Cases “A”
Through “C” ........................................................................................................................................ 68
Table 27. Summary of Cost Allocation Between Metals at Adex Mining’s Mount Pleasant Project 69
Table 28. Monte Carlo Simulation Input Distributions for Grade, Recovery, and Costs ................... 71
Table 29. Short-Term Indium Supply Scenarios .................................................................................... 73
Table 30. Monte Carlo Simulation Input Distributions for Metal Prices .............................................. 75
Table 31. Main Product Growth and Associated Forecasted Byproduct Indium Production ........... 75
Table 32. Medium-Term Indium Supply Scenarios ................................................................................ 76
1
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications
1 Introduction
Indium
5
was discovered in 1863 by Ferdinand Reich and Hieronymus Theodor Richter. Since
indium’s introduction as a commercial product in the 1930s, the indium market has had two key
characteristics:
•
It is produced primarily as a byproduct of zinc production, so its supply seriously
depends on developments in zinc markets.
•
It is used in niche electronic applications, so its demand is small relative to many other
metals and is subject to shocks when new applications are developed.
The advent of flat-panel displays raised indium’s commercial profile. Since 2002, annual indium
production and recycling have increased. Its use as a transparent conducting oxide in the form of
indium-tin oxide (ITO) and the lesser used indium-zinc oxide now represents the single largest
use. As indium’s use in photovoltaics (PV) and flat-panel displays continues to increase, analysts
have become concerned about its future availability.
For several reasons, the indium market is fragile, fragmented, and prone to short-term shocks:
•
Its short-term availability is tied closely to the level of zinc mining and processing, from
which indium is produced as a byproduct. As such, an increase in indium’s price will not
lead to an appreciable increase in indium production in the short term, except in periods
when significant quantities of indium are left unrecovered from zinc processing residues
and other wastes.
•
Also on the supply side, a relatively small number of firms and countries account for
most indium production. This leads to a general lack of transparency in the indium
market, because these firms tend to withhold information from the public domain for
competitive reasons. This creates some possibility for opportunistic pricing. The small
number of countries producing primary indium—and China’s important role as the
producer of about half of annual primary production—result in a market that is
vulnerable to supply restriction if users operating in China benefit from preferential
access to Chinese indium (such as when it is subject to export taxes or quotas).
•
On the demand side, the small size of the market and the relatively small number of
important applications mean that total demand can increase significantly in a short time if
a new application emerges (such as what happened with ITO thin-films in flat-panel
displays over the last decade).
•
Also on the demand side, most indium users are not sensitive to changes in indium prices
over the short term because the price of indium accounts for a very small share of total
costs in the production of indium-containing products (such as flat-screen televisions).
Over the longer term, the indium market will be better able to adjust to shocks. If prices rise, for
example, producers can invest in facilities to recover previously unrecovered indium, and users
5
Atomic number 49, atomic weight 114.82, melting point 156.8
o
C, boiling point 2073
o
C, Mohs hardness 1.2 (Barbalace 1995–
2012).