Cjss second Issue: cjss second Issue qxd

Georgian-Russian Conflict and Its Influence on 
the Energy and Security Situation in 
the Black Sea – Caspian Region.
Hanna Shelest
National Institute for Strategic Studies
n 
this article author analyzes the influence of the Russian-Georgian
crisis of August 2008 on the security and energy situation in the Black
Sea region. The main threats and risks due to the Russian-Georgian
crisis 2008 in the Black Sea region may be considered as activation of
the situation in the separatist regions of Moldova and Azerbaijan, se-
curity of the transport routes, pipelines, energy resources supply from
the Caspian basin. For Ukraine – complication of the relations with
Russian Federation, aggravation of the Black Sea Fleet status problem,
possibility to use South Ossetia Scenario in the Crimea, difficulties for
the realization of the “White Stream” Project. Author also considers
positions of the third parties in particularly the EU, Turkey, Armenia,
Belarus and other CIS states and how the conflict touches their inter-
ests and relations with parties to conflict. Events of August 2008
demonstrated which mechanisms the Russian Federation is ready to
use to prevent post-soviet states from the Euroatlantic integration.
And the same time the conflict has demonstrated how six days crisis in
such interconnected and important region as the Wider Black Sea can
influence and impact not only on the regional players and neighbors
but on the common European security and stability. 
ruseT-saqarTvelos konfliqti da misi gavlena
energo usafrTxoebaze
hana Selesti
strategiuli swavlebis erovnuli centri
aSromSi avtori aanalizebs ruseT-saqarTvelos 2008 wlis
agvistos kriziss, Savi zRvis regionis energo mdgomareobis
da usafrTxoebis mimarTulebiT. Savi zRvis regionSi,  ruseT-
saqarTvelos 2008 wlis krizisis Sedegad, mTavar safrTxeebad
SeiZleba CaiTvalos moldaveTisa da azerbaijanis  separatis-
tuli regionebis gaaqtiurebis, satransporto gzebisa da mil-
n
n
I
I
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sadenebis usafrTxoebis, kaspiis auzis energo uzrunvelyofis
sakiTxebi. ukrainisaTvis ruseTis federaciasTan garTule-
buli urTierToba vlindeba Savi zRvis flotis statusis sak-
iTxis gamZafrebaSi, CrdiloeT oseTis scenaris gameorebis
albaTobaSi, proeqt “TeTri nakadis” ganxorcielebis Seferxe-
baSi. avtori yuradRebas amaxvilebs, aseve evro kavSiris,
TurqeTis, somxeTis, belorusiis da sxva dsT-s qveynebis pozi-
ciebze, maT interesebze konfliqtis gavlenasTan dakavSirebiT.
2008 wlis agvistos movlenebma moaxdina demonstrireba, Tu
ra meqanizmebis gamyeneba SeuZlia ruseTis federacias yofili
sabWoTa kavSiris qveynebis evropasTan integraciis saqmeSi
xelis SesaSlelad. amasTanave konfliqtma TvalnaTliv
gvaCvena, ra Sedegebi SeiZleba mohyves 6 dRian kriziss iseT re-
gionSi, rogoricaa Savi zRvis regioni. gavlena gavrcelda ara-
marto mezobel qveyneze, aramed konfliqtma zogadad evropis
usafrTxoebasa da stabilurobaze imoqmeda.
Russian-Georgian conflict of August 2008 should be considered in the
context of the general geopolitical and geoenergetic situation in the Black Sea
– Caspian region. Roots and consequences of this conflict touch interests of
many actors of the international relations, have deep connection with other
events in the world, including Kosovo independence proclamation in Febru-
ary 2008.
The goal of this article is to analyze consequences of the Russian – Geor-
gian conflict of August 2008 for the energy and security situation in the Black
Sea – Caspian region and to elaborate recommendations how to minimize its
negative influence. The main tasks are analysis of the roots, which led to the
crisis, study of the main risks and challenges due to the Russian-Georgian
conflict. In addition, separate positions of the third parties concerning the
August crisis will be examined and forecasts of the possible problem solutions
made. 
The relevance of the topic is in the direct influence of this conflict to the
national security of other states of the Black Sea region, its consequences for
the energy cooperation in the region and development of the relations with
the European Union. 
Russian – Georgian crisis of August 2008 intensified academic discussion
on “frozen” conflicts in the Black Sea region both among academic of the post-
Soviet space, Europe and the USA. Some authors concentrated on the roots
and consequences of the conflicts, others – on the role of the third parties in
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the region, a number of authors analyze particular aspects of the conflicts
(ethnical questions, history of development, military and political issues, etc.).
Among the main works on this topic it worth to mention those of H. Perepe-
lytsya (2003), Z. Suslu (2006), H. Karasar (2008), Y. Yakis (2008), etc. In ad-
dition, it is necessary to mention ad-hoc analytical researching of the
Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development (2008), Interna-
tional Crisis Group, South Caucasian Center of Regional Security, etc. Special
attention deserve authors who started to work out on the interconnection of
the energy security in the region with the solution of the conflicts in Georgia,
Moldova and Azerbaijan, such as C. Svante (2009), N. Kassenova (2009) and
T. Marketos (2009). 
Many experts assume that Russian-Georgian war of August 2008 and lat-
est gas crisis in the Ukrainian-Russian relations of the beginning of 2009 are
interconnected events – parts of the general concept to destabilize situation
in the region, not-allowing Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO, to spoil their
image on the world arena and promotion of own alternative projects of the
energy resources transportation by-passing two states’ territories. 
Problem of the influence of the Russian-Georgian confrontation to the
energy security in the Black Sea region is necessary to consider in two di-
mensions: direct impact on the realization of the projects of the energy supply
from the Caspian region via territory of Georgia (Odessa-Brody, Baku-Supsa,
Baku-Ceyhan, White stream, etc.) and indirect influence on the realization of
the Russian projects of the gas pipeline “North Stream” and oil pipeline Bur-
gas – Alexandropolis. De-facto Russian Federation conducts planned disin-
formation on Nabucco project in favor of “South Stream”, in particularly in
November 2008 Russian Ambassador to the EU V. Chizhov said that in dis-
tinction of the “South Stream” there are no sources for filling Nabucco (Посол
России…, 2008). 
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union some former republics (Azerbai-
jan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) appeared with huge energy resources with-
out real possibility to export them to the world markets due to the lack of
infrastructure and because they were landlocked. The only way they had was
transit via territory of Russia. Economic and infrastructural components of
the problems were resolved by foreign investments. From a political perspec-
tive it was understandable that the development of these resources and their
export to world markets was a huge factor in the overall development of the
successor states, and that the export route choices for these energy reserves
would go a long way in determining where these states would manage – in
spite of being small states surrounded by great powers – to become fully sov-
ereign and independent actors on the world scene (Svante, 2009). American
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