FINAL REPORT: DEFINITIONAL MISSION TO AZERBAIJAN:
AZERCOSMOS – AZERSPACE-2 FEASIBILITY STUDY
August 07, 2013
Space Partnership International
60
Task 8 - Financial Evaluation
The Contractor shall develop a detailed financial model that shall include a Life Cycle Cost
Analysis (LCCA) as part of the overall project cost estimate. The LCCA shall examine the
following categories:
Capital Costs
The Contractor shall make a detailed budget estimate (within maximum +/-10% accuracy) of the
project investment costs for Azerspace-2. The preliminary investment costs composition is
stipulated in Task 5 above. The Contractor shall verify and amend this list if required.
The Contractor shall include an estimated cost for future technical assistance and customer
support as part of the investment costs for all stages of the Project.
Operating Costs
The Contractor shall prepare an estimation (within maximum +/-10% accuracy) of the
projected Operating Costs.
The Contractor shall consider that
like investment costs, operation and maintenance
("O&M") costs are system-specific and depend to a certain extent on decisions taken at
the design and construction of Azerspace-2.
The Contractor shall consider all operational costs,
including administrative and
management fees, taxes, and interest. The Contractor shall also consider personnel costs.
The Contractor's cost analysis shall also include equipment and building lease, orbital slot
fees, concessions and rent payments (if any).
The Contractor shall evaluate additional costs that may be incurred under
different financing arrangements from export credit agencies or other sources to take into
account the cost of capital, for example,
interest payments, transaction fees associated
with debt, loan commitment fees, exposure fees, and similar costs.
The Contractor shall evaluate additional costs that may be incurred under different financing arrangements
from export
credit agencies or other sources to take into account the cost of capital, for example, interest payments, transaction fees
associated with debt, loan commitment fees, exposure fees, and similar costs.
Revenues
The Contractor shall develop various revenue models for wholesale services in each of the
frequency bands being contemplated. If wholesale transponder sales are not expected to be the
primary source of revenues, the Contractor shall develop a revenue model that incorporates those
changes. The Contractor shall assess the financial impacts (cost vs. revenue potential) of hosted
payloads on the utilization of Azerspace-2.
Cash Flows
The Contractor shall conduct cash flow analyses to determine the best combination of transponder
lease and sales and evaluate amounts of loans or government support required to reach cash flow
positive.
FINAL REPORT: DEFINITIONAL MISSION TO AZERBAIJAN:
AZERCOSMOS – AZERSPACE-2 FEASIBILITY STUDY
August 07, 2013
Space Partnership International
61
Profitability Analysis
The Contractor shall generate and evaluate specific indices of economic performance such as
profitability, return on investment, internal rate of return, debt service coverage ratio, and net
present value. The Contractor shall design the financial analysis to evaluate available financing
scenarios, analyze each scenario’s cost effectiveness, and compare each scenario’s improvement in
relation to the situation at the time of the Feasibility Study preparation. In addition to conservative
assessments of operating and investment costs, the profitability and financial analysis shall
compare costs of financing, for example,
interest on bank credits, and other banking charges.
The Contractor shall assess the potential profitability of the Azerspace-2 satellite.
The Contractor shall develop a viable Financing Plan for the project. In developing a Financing Plan
for the project, the Contractor shall consider and evaluate sources of funds to cover the capital
expenditures, and how the free cash flows shall be used to cover the projected debt service. In
order to evaluate the potential sources of financing, the Contractor shall contact local and
international long-term debt financing sources to discuss their
requirements for, and interest in,
the project. Sources to contact include, but are not limited to, the U.S. Export- Import Bank and the
Asian Development Bank.
The Contractor shall review indicative financing term sheets from potential lenders, if available,
and include them in the final Feasibility Study report.
The Contractor shall develop a financing plan taking into account the comments and
requirements of the aforementioned institutions. The financing plan shall include indicative
capital structure, covenants, a n d terms and conditions for borrowings. It shall address interest
rate and currency hedging, duties and taxes, and foreign exchange availability.
In addition to the projected economic analysis, the available sources of financing and proposed
Financing Plan shall be used to assess the projected financial viability of the project.
The Contractor shall also prepare pro forma or projected income statements and balance sheets,
and shall conduct and report on a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate the range of conditions
under which the project will be profitable, and the extent to which the projections are dependent
on uncontrollable conditions or factors. The pro forma financial statements will consist of the
Income Statement (Profit and Loss Account), the Balance Sheet, Statement of Cash Flows, and
Financial Ratios that include profitability calculations and cash flow projections. The Contractor
shall provide advice on how to make the project most bankable, including providing risk
minimization strategies to the extent that they are within control of the Azercosmos, and shall
anticipate and address risk and return criteria of the most likely sources of bank loan financing.
Task 8 Deliverable:
The Contractor shall develop financial projections sufficient to include in an investment
memorandum that will provide potential financiers with the information needed regarding the
economic and financial merits of the project for their decision to invest.
Task 9 – Project Risk
The Contractor shall perform a risk assessment to identify risks, minimize the identified risks
where possible through insurance or other means, and recommend a reasonable allocation of
remaining risks. The primary risk categories to be considered by the Contractor shall include, but
not be limited to the following: (i) project implementation risks, i.e., the risks of obtaining
consents, permits, licenses, concession rights and other agreements and covenants necessary for
financial closure, (ii) technical risks, i.e., construction delays, cost overruns, launch, operations,