36
smaller erosion in the terms of trade of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists (compare Tables 10
and 8). Moreover, the worsening of the terms of trade lasted less in 2010 than in 2005 (ibid).
In contrast to 2005, the most serious deterioration in terms of trade was suffered by the
pastoralists, and considerable losses of livestock occurred between March and July 2010 in
several parts of the country due to the concentration of animals in few areas with inadequate
water sources, the large 2009 fodder production deficit, considerable export of fodder
towards neighboring countries, and other factors (OCHA 2010).
Figure 18 - Niger: Trend in millet prices (CFAF per Kg) between October 2009 and November
2010 (red square line), compared with that recorded over October 2004 and November 2005
(blue line)
Source: authors’ elaboration on SIMA data.
However, the subsided sales of animal feeding from the Government and FAO, interventions
targeted at the treatment of ill animals and, from June, livestock purchases (if at very low
prices) by traders from Nigeria contributed to improve the situation (ibid). As a result, while
during the 2005 crisis the terms of trade started to improve only in October, they began to
rise in August 2010. However, some small pastoralists and poor agro-pastoralists did not
benefit from the normalization of the situation, as they had already lost or sold almost all
their livestock (WFP & Republic du Niger 2010).
Thirdly, wage rates were cut of up to 50 percent (FEWSNET 2010). In particular, between
December and February, there were new inflows of laborers in Niamey, causing wage rates to
fall to about 500 CFAF per day or 3500-4000 per month, approximately half the pre-
September 2009 level. Many of the new arrivals joined the firewood and forage markets. In
March 2010 there was also a massive migration of 2000 people per month towards Nigeria
and Lybia, according to Caritas estimation (OCHA 2010). Despite the aggregate level of
analysis, Table 10 suggests that also for rural laborers the entitlement erosion was less in
2010 than 2005. Data on child admissions to feeding centers suggest that – despite a greater
flow of food imports, a better policy response, a modest increase in millet prices, and a less
acute erosion of food entitlements, the 2009/10 crisis witnessed a surge in the number of
children admitted to feeding centers (Figure 19).
37
Table 10 - Niger: changes in the terms of trade between millet, livestock, onions and rural wages (2005-2009 and 2009-2010)
Quintals of millet
Quintals of millet
Quintals of millet for
Quintals of millet per
per cow
Per female goat
quintals of onions
20 days rural wage °
2005-
2009
2009-2010 % change
2005-
2009
2009-
2010
%
change
2005-
2009-
2010
%
change
2008-
2009
2009-
2010
%
2009
change
October
9.03
8.39
-7.1
1.18
1.21
2.5
2.75
2.55
-7.2
1.18
0.55
-53.8
November
9.25
7.79
-15.8
1.2
1.21
0.8
3.08
2.67
-13.6
1.17
0.53
-55.0
December
8.8
7.43
-15.6
1.28
1.12
-12.5
2.88
2.49
-13.5
1.08
0.51
-52.4
January
8.3
6.87
-17.2
1.13
1.02
-9.7
2.13
1.87
-12.0
1.01
0.49
-50.9
February
8.31
6.76
-18.7
1.11
1
-9.9
1.61
1.58
-2.0
1.01
0.49
-51.8
March
8.38
6.48
-22.7
1.04
0.94
-9.6
1.30
1.40
7.5
1.00
0.48
-52.3
April
8.12
5.87
-27.7
1.08
0.92
-14.8
1.16
1.24
7.0
1.00
0.47
-52.7
May
7.93
5.36
-32.4
1.07
0.92
-14.0
1.17
1.35
14.7
1.00
0.45
-55.2
June
7.69
5.27
-31.5
1.05
0.86
-18.1
1.35
1.60
18.9
0.99
0.43
-56.1
July
7.13
5.25
-26.4
0.97
0.87
-10.3
1.40
1.69
21.2
0.89
0.42
-52.8
August
7.39
5.86
-20.7
0.97
0.87
-10.3
1.83
2.24
22.4
0.83
0.41
-50.5
September
8.16
7.57
-7.2
1.04
1.07
2.9
1.98
2.55
28.4
0.94
0.47
-50.2
Notes: the terms of trade are expressed as the number of 100 kg sacks of millet obtainable by selling one female goat, 100kg of onions, or 20 days of agricultural work. For
the latter, FEWS NET reports a constant daily wage of CFA Francs 500 and 1000 for 2009–10 and 2008–9.
Source: Authors’ calculation based on data by FEWS NET.