12
1998)). Such staggering population growth increases the demand for land which is satisfied
by migrating towards the marginal lands of the Central region (area 4 in Figure 3). Growth is
hampered also by the shortage of human resources. At 29, 38 and 7-11 percent, adult literacy
and primary and secondary school enrolment rates are among the lowest in the world (Table
2).
The country is landlocked and the closest port, Cotonou, is about 1040 km away, a fact that
makes transport and communications difficult and expensive. 40 percent of GDP and 87
percent of employment are accounted for by subsistence agriculture of millet and sorghum,
cattle rearing, and the cultivation of cash crops (onions and
cowpeas) while manufacturing
and services are dominated by the informal sector. At around 340 $, Niger’s GNI per capita
(about 900 US$ PPP) is among the ten lowest in the world. Though eroding, its dominant
communitarian land tenure system makes that income concentration is moderate and, as a
result, the ratio of the income share of the top 20% to that of the bottom 40% is a moderate
3.1 (ibid).
Figure 3 - Niger; Agricultural Zones
Source: Based on Fews Net, 2005
Food production (mainly millet) per capita has stagnated for decades, is increasingly more
volatile, and droughts are recurrent. In addition, marked food price seasonality increases
malnutrition every year during the hunger months of May-September. Niger has gradually
become dependent on food imports to accommodate its growing population, whereas it
does not earn much from exports, apart from a few agricultural commodities and uranium.
Malawi is a small country of 118,480 sq km located in Southern Africa. The dominant religion
is Christianity. It comprises a narrow elongated plateau located at around 600 m above sea
level (Figure 4). The Northern part of the country is mountainous but the rest of the country
has a moderate subtropical climate. Like Niger, it has a population of 15.3 million (Table 2).
Population density is 126.9 inhabitants per square kilometer, the sixth highest in Africa
(Minot 2010). Population growth has declined somewhat during the last decade but averages
around 3.2 percent a year, a rate which leads to a doubling of the population in 18-19 years, a
fact that raises pressure on scarce land available, reduces soil fertility and increases migration.
13
The country is landlocked and the nearest harbors (Beira and Nacala in Mozambique) are at
about 1000 Km from Lilongwe and 1500 Km from Northern Malawi, a fact that increases the
cost and delivery time of food imports.
Figure 4 - Malawi: Agricultural Zones
Source: Authors’ reworking based on FEWSNet and Malawi National Vulnerability Assessment Committee, 2005;
2003.
Agriculture accounts for 34 percent of GDP, 81 percent of employment and 90 percent of
exports (World Bank, 2009). Annual rainfall ranges between 800 and 1400 mm in most areas
(as against 300-600 in Niger) with a strong seasonal uni-modal pattern in November and
April. Agricultural output is more diversified than in Niger, but maize is by far the most
important food crop, followed by cassava, sweet potatoes, and sorghum. Maize accounts also
for 90 of all calories intake (Table 2). Unlike in Niger, maize and cassava farming is to be found
in most of the country. The dominant export crop is tobacco, grown both by small-scale
farmers and large estates. Other cash crops are sugarcane, tea, cotton, and coffee, produced
mainly by estates which use ganyu, the casual farm work provided by smallholders to
complement their income. At around 280 $, Malawi’s GNI per capita is also among the ten
lowest in the world. The land tenure system is dominated by small farms (0.5-0.8 hectares),
with the result that income concentration is a bit lower
than in Niger, as the ratio of the
income share of the top 20% to that of the bottom 40% is 2.5 (ibid). Low average income and
a medium income inequality make that poverty affects nearly three quarters of the
population (Table 2). The country exhibits better indicators than Niger in the field of health,
education and literacy though, at the same time, has to deal with a much greater HIV/AIDS
problem as 11 percent of the population 15-49 years of age is infected as opposed to 0.8
percent in Niger (Cornia et al. 2011).
14
4. Long term changes in food production, prices and food security, 2000-2010
Niger
Niger can be divided in four main agricultural zones. Below the desert lies the Sahel (area 3 in
Figure 3). With an average rainfall of 100-300 mm per year and sub-desert climate, this land
can be used only for transhumant cattle herding. However, growing population pressure has
led to an encroachment of agriculture along its southern part, and 70-80.000 new hectares of
land subject to wind and water erosion are being cultivated every year. Second, the agro-
pastoral zone (area 4 in Figure 3) is suitable for the extensive millet farming. Yet, due to low
yields, most households do not produce enough millet to feed themselves throughout the
year, and engage in goat rearing, casual labour, wood selling, small trade and seasonal
migration. Third, the rain-fed area (the Maradi and Zinder regions) is characterized by semi-
intensive agricultural practices, intercropping of cereals with cowpeas and groundnuts, and
livestock rearing.
Food production and availability
Food production is dominated by the subsistence farming of millet and sorghum which
account for 78 and 19 percent of cereal output (Beekhuis 2005). The latest 10 years have seen
three major shocks in terms of production: 2000/2001, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010
12
. Table 3
illustrates the long term trends in farmed land, cereal production, land yields, and imports
dependence. These data point to an apparent long term stability of cereal production per
capita at around 240-260 Kg and of net cereal availability per capita at around 200-220 Kg
which seem to dispel fears of an approaching ‘Malthusian trap’. However, low and stagnant
land yields and rapid growth of the rural population have caused a migration towards the
agro-pastoral and pastoral areas and the subsequent land degradation have gradually
eroded food security in the following ways:
- Year-to-year output volatility. The expansion of the agricultural frontier towards lands
exposed to a high risk of erosion and overexploitation have heightened the vulnerability of
Niger’s agriculture to climatic shocks, as suggested by the rising frequency of bad harvests:
prior to the 1980s droughts were recorded on average every ten years, over the last 20 years
they took place every five years, while over 1997-2004 there were three crisis, though over
2005-10 there were one bad year and a semi-bad one.
12
Since 1960, Niger suffered several food shocks, mainly due to droughts. The main ones of them, i.e. 1973/74
(Dakoussou), 1984/85 (El Bohari), 1990/91, 1993/94, 1996/97 (Matche mai), and 2004/05 (Wazaka gaya ma) have
been classified as years of serious food crises (Gouvernement du Niger/DNPGCA 2007).
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